Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates
Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates
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DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.057
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Roehner, Bertrand M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Herteliu, Claudiu;Richmond, Peter;Roehner, Bertrand M.
在这里，“高频率”一词是指每日、每周或每月的出生数据。每天出生人数的波动显示出一连串的尖峰和低谷，至少乍一看，这几乎像白色噪音一样随机。然而，最近发表了几项研究，包括本作者的研究，这些研究更好地了解了出生如何受到外源因素的影响。本文展示了如何可能检查灾难的不利影响，如饥荒，疾病，地震和热浪的概念，并将这些与随后的大异常低谷出生率。使用当代和历史数据，我们还探讨了随着时间的推移发生的变化，在出生率低谷，产生的宗教法令内的东正教和天主教人口在罗马尼亚和法国分别。这些以及其他的影响使我们产生了这样的希望：我们很快就能像天文学家破译象形文字一样，“阅读”和解释出生率模式。(C)2018 Elsevier B.V.版权所有。
Here the term "high frequency" refers to daily, weekly or monthly birth data. The fluctuations of daily birth numbers show a succession of spikes and dips which, at least at first sight, looks almost as random as white noise. However in recent times several studies were published, including by the present authors, which have given better insight into how birth is affected by exogenous factors. This paper demonstrates how it is possible to examine the adverse effects of catastrophes such as famines, diseases, earthquakes and heat waves on conceptions and link these to subsequent large anomalous troughs in the birth rate. Using both contemporary and historical data we also explore the changes over time which have taken place in birth rate troughs that arise from religious edicts within the Orthodox and Catholic populations in Romania and France respectively. These as well as other effects raise the hope that we will soon be able to "read" and interpret birth rate patterns in the same manner as for example Egyptologists may decipher hieroglyphs. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.