The colour of environmental fluctuations associated with terrestrial animal population dynamics
The colour of environmental fluctuations associated with terrestrial animal population dynamics
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与陆地动物种群动态相关的环境波动的颜色
DOI：
10.1111/geb.12824
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Gilljam D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gilljam D
目的环境变化的时间结构（颜色）影响种群波动、灭绝风险和群落稳定性。然而，目前还不清楚是否与人口波动的环境协变量是从一个纯粹的随机过程（白色噪音）区分。我们的目的是估计颜色系数和相对支持的三个模型通常代表有色随机过程，在环境系列与陆地动物种群波动。位置北美和欧亚大陆。时间段1901 - 2002。主要类群研究鸟类，昆虫和哺乳动物。方法我们分析了多种非生物环境协变量，比较使用白色噪声拟合的竞争模型中时间结构的点估计和置信区间，时域和频域中的自回归[AR（1）]和1/f过程（其中时间序列在分解为不同的正弦频率及其相对功率后进行分析）。每年对所有动物时间序列进行采样，持续≤ 50年，可能会增加II型错误。我们还考虑了101年系列的匹配环境协变量，进行统计功效分析，评估我们的能力，得出稳健的conclusion.ResultsTemperature相关变量与人口波动的最大部分。93%的较短环境序列与白色噪声难以区分，受到时间序列长度的限制，并与宽置信区间相关。在时域中分析的较长环境系列提供了足够高的统计功效，以正确识别颜色估计值≥| 0.27|主要结论集中在生态学家通常可用的短时间尺度上，大多数与陆地动物种群波动相关的环境变量最好用白色噪声过程来描述，尽管II型错误很常见。正确检测功率为0.8的中间色噪声需要时域中≥ 16个数据点或频域中≥ 47个数据点。在较长的时间尺度上，II型错误的可能性较小，五分之一的人口与有色（通常是红色）变量相关。
AimThe temporal structure (colour) of environmental variation influences population fluctuations, extinction risk and community stability. However, it is unclear whether environmental covariates linked to population fluctuations are distinguishable from a purely random process (white noise). We aimed to estimate colour coefficients and relative support for three models commonly representing coloured stochastic processes, in environmental series linked to terrestrial animal population fluctuations.LocationNorth America and Eurasia.Time period1901–2002.Major taxa studiedBirds, insects and mammals.MethodsWe analysed multiple abiotic environmental covariates, comparing point estimates and confidence intervals of temporal structure in competing models fitted using white noise, autoregressive [AR(1)] and 1/fprocesses in the time domain and the frequency domain (where time series were analysed after decomposition into different sinusoidal frequencies and their relative powers). All animal time series were sampled annually for ≤ 50 years, potentially inflating type II errors. We also considered 101‐year series of matched environmental covariates, performing a statistical power analysis evaluating our ability to draw robust conclusions.ResultsTemperature‐related variables were associated with the largest fraction of population fluctuations. Ninety‐three per cent of shorter environmental series were indistinguishable from white noise, limited by time‐series length and associated with wide confidence intervals. The longer environmental series analysed in the time domain offered sufficiently high statistical power to identify correctly colour estimates ≥ |0.27|, indicating that 20% of series were best described by a slightly reddened noise process.Main conclusionsFocusing on the short time‐scales typically available for ecologists, most environmental variables associated with terrestrial animal population fluctuations are best characterized by white noise processes, although type II errors are common. The correct detection of intermediately coloured noise with power 0.8 requires ≥ 16 data points in the time domain or ≥ 47 points in the frequency domain. Over longer time‐scales, where type II errors are less likely, one‐fifth of populations are associated with coloured (often reddened) variables.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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DOI：
10.1093/imammb/21.1.63
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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