An approach for evaluating the market effects of energy efficiency programs
An approach for evaluating the market effects of energy efficiency programs
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评估能效计划市场影响的方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Turiel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Vine;R. Prahl;Steven Meyers;I. Turiel
本文介绍了加州目前正在进行的工作，评估市场的影响。我们首先概述了进行市场效应研究的方法，包括研究计划中开发的六个关键步骤：（1）描述特定市场特征的范围研究，回顾相关市场效应研究，开发综合市场和计划理论，并确定市场指标;（2）使用现有数据源分析市场演变;（3）根据销售数据和与主要市场参与者的访谈，分析市场影响;（4）分析归因;（5）估计节能量;以及（6）评估可持续性（即，在没有或减少公共干预的情况下，任何观察到的市场效应可能持续的程度，从而有助于改变市场）。我们描述了进行这种类型的分析的挑战（1）选择一个比较州（S）到加州作为基线，（2）数据的可用性和质量（限制性分析）、（3）结果模式不一致和（4）在一个时间点进行市场效应评估，而没有利用多年积累的研究成果，并为未来市场效应评估的研究提供了一些建议。随着市场改造方案的出台，市场效果的评估将变得至关重要。我们设想，这些市场效应的研究将有助于奠定基础，完善技术，以衡量计划的影响，寻求改变市场的能源效率的产品和做法。
This paper presents work currently being carried out in California on evaluating market effects. We first outline an approach for conducting market effect studies that includes the six key steps that were developed in study plans: (1) a scoping study that characterizes a particular market, reviews relevant market effects studies, develops integrated market and program theories, and identifies market indicators; (2) analysis of market evolution, using existing data sources; (3) analysis of market effects, based on sales data and interviews with key market actors; (4) analysis of attribution; (5) estimation of energy savings; and (6) assessment of sustainability (i.e., the extent to which any observed market effects are likely to persist in the absence or reduction of public intervention, and thus has helped to transform the market).We describe the challenges in conducting this type of analysis (1) selecting a comparison state(s) to California for a baseline, (2) availability and quality of data (limiting analyses), (3) inconsistent patterns of results, and (4) conducting market effects evaluations at one point in time, without the benefit of years of accumulated research findings, and then provide some suggestions for future research on the evaluation of market effects. With the promulgation of market transformation programs, the evaluation of market effects will be critical. We envision that these market effects studies will help lay the foundation for the refinement of techniques for measuring the impacts of programs that seek to transform markets for energy efficiency products and practices.