Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.
Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.
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2017 年大西洋极端飓风季节的海洋前兆。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-08496-4
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Hallam S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hallam S
活跃的大西洋飓风季节在主要发展区域（MDR，10-20°N，20-80°W）的正前兆海表温度异常（SSTA）有利。在这里，我们确定了与最近活跃的2005年和2010年季节相比，2017年（有记录以来最昂贵的季节）这些异常的不同驱动机制。在2005年和2010年，减弱的大西洋经向翻转环流是正SSTA的主要驱动力。然而，在2017年，减少风驱动的冷水上升流和东北部MDR的地表净热损失减弱是主要驱动因素。我们的研究结果首次表明，海气热通量和风应力相关过程在产生前体正SSTA方面很重要，并且这些过程是2017年季节严重程度的积极先决条件。与其他强劲季节相比，2017年晚些时候（4月至7月而不是3月）出现了正的SSTA，这加剧了预测大西洋飓风季严重程度的挑战。
Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10–20°N, 20–80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling and weaker surface net heat loss in the north-eastern MDR were the main drivers. Our results are the first to show that air-sea heat flux and wind stress related processes are important in generating precursor positive SSTAs and that these processes were active pre-determinants of the 2017 season severity. In contrast to other strong seasons, positive SSTA developed later in 2017 (between April and July rather than March) compounding the challenge of predicting Atlantic hurricane season severity.