Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks.
Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2017.12.001
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发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Burattini MN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Massad E;Amaku M;Coutinho FAB;Struchiner CJ;Lopez LF;Wilder-Smith A;Burattini MN
在本文中，我们提出了一个模型来估计受登革热影响的社区中伊蚊的密度。该方法包括将连续函数拟合到登革热感染的发生率，从中直接得出受感染蚊子的密度。进一步推导可以计算出潜伏和易感蚊子的密度，三者之和等于蚊子的总密度。该方法以登革热感染地区城市黄热病死灰复燃的风险为例进行说明，但同样的程序也适用于寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅病毒等其他伊蚊传播的感染。
In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.