Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm's life cycle
Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm's life cycle
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公司生命周期中的不确定性、不完全信息和预期形成
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.08.001
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Chen C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen C
使用日本企业的长面板数据集，我们发现，企业作出更精确的预测和更少的自相关预测误差，因为他们获得更多的经验。然后，我们建立了一个企业动态模型，企业逐渐了解他们的需求，通过使用噪声信号。使用随时间推移的预期数据，我们将学习机制与其他机制干净地隔离开来，并发现它占整个生命周期预测误差总体下降的20%-40%。消除信息摩擦所带来的生产率提高幅度在3%到12%之间，其中企业的进入和退出发挥了重要作用。
Using a long panel data set on Japanese firms, we find that firms make more precise forecasts and less autocorrelated forecast errors as they gain more experience. Then, we build a firm dynamics model where firms gradually learn about their demand by using a noisy signal. Using expectations data over time, we cleanly isolate the learning mechanism from other mechanisms and find that it accounts for 20%–40% of the overall decline in forecast errors over the life cycle. Productivity gains from removing information frictions range from 3% to 12%, with firm entry and exit playing prominent roles.