Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector
Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector
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DOI：
10.1007/s11027-007-9136-z
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发表时间：
2008-06
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
D. Scott;J. Dawson;Brenda Jones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Scott;J. Dawson;Brenda Jones
冬季休闲是美国东北部文化特征的重要组成部分，为地区经济贡献了数十亿美元。这项研究考察了雪地摩托和高山滑雪这两个最大的冬季娱乐产业对二十一世纪四种气候变化情景的脆弱性。在所有情况下，天然雪都成为越来越稀缺的资源。天然积雪的减少对雪地摩托车行业产生了非常负面的影响。早在 2010 年至 2039 年，15 个雪地摩托研究区域中的 4 到 6 个预计将失去本赛季一半以上的时间。到 2070 年至 2099 年，在 A1Fi 情景下，该地区几乎消除了可靠的雪地摩托季节（> 50 天）。对造雪的大量投资大大降低了滑雪行业的脆弱性，而气候变化在 2010 年至 2039 年期间仅对 14 个滑雪场中的 4 个滑雪场构成了风险，这些滑雪场的平均滑雪季节下降到 100 天以下，整个圣诞节至新年假期开放的概率下降到 75% 以下。相反，到 2070 年至 2099 年，只有四个滑雪研究区未达到这些相同的经济风险标准。为了最大限度地减少滑雪季节的损失，造雪需求预计将大幅增加，从而增加水资源供应和成本的重要不确定性。气候变化对东北部的冬季娱乐业构成了显着威胁，对于大量投资于冬季旅游和相关房地产的企业和社区来说，潜在的经济影响是相当大的。
Winter recreation is an important part of the cultural identity of the Northeast United States and is a multibillion dollar contributor to the regional economy. This study examined the vulnerability of the two largest winter recreation industries, snowmobiling and alpine skiing, to four climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century. Under all scenarios, natural snow became an increasingly scarce resource. The diminished natural snow pack had a very negative impact on the snowmobile industry. As early as 2010–2039, 4 to 6 of the 15 snowmobile study areas were projected to lose more than half of the current season. Reliable snowmobile seasons (>50 days) were virtually eliminated in the region under the A1Fi scenarios by 2070–2099. The large investment in snowmaking substantially reduced the vulnerability of the ski industry and climate change posed a risk to only 4 of the 14 ski areas in 2010–2039, where average ski seasons declined below 100 days and the probability of being open for the entire Christmas–New Year’s holiday declined below 75%. Conversely, by 2070–2099 only four ski study areas had not reached these same economic risk criteria. In order to minimize ski season losses, snowmaking requirements are projected to increase substantially, raising important uncertainties about water availability and cost. Climate change represents a notable threat to the winter recreation sector in the Northeast, and the potential economic ramifications for businesses and communities heavily invested in winter tourism and related real estate is sizeable.