Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach
Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach
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DOI：
10.1111/tgis.12027
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发表时间：
2013-10-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Olner, Dan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heppenstall, Alison J.;Harland, Kirk;Olner, Dan
模拟受空间影响的零售市场（例如零售汽油市场）内的动态和过程是一个极具挑战性的研究领域。目前的方法是有限的，因为它们无法模拟供应商或消费者行为在时间和空间上的影响。基于代理的模型（ABM）提供了一种替代方法，克服了这些问题。我们展示了如何知识的零售定价是通过使用一个混合的“模型方法：一个代理模型的零售商和消费者的空间互动模型。这使得个体零售商之间的空间竞争问题，以一种只访问基于代理的模型的方式进行检查，允许每个模型零售商自主控制优化其价格。该混合模型被证明是成功的，在全国范围内重建空间定价动态，模拟原油价格上涨的影响，以及准确预测哪些零售商最容易关闭超过10年的时间。
Simulating the dynamics and processes within a spatially influenced retail market, such as the retail gasoline market, is a highly challenging research area. Current approaches are limited through their inability to model the impact of supplier or consumer behavior over both time and space. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an alternative approach that overcomes these problems. We demonstrate how knowledge of retail pricing is extended by using a hybrid' model approach: an agent model for retailers and a spatial interaction model for consumers. This allows the issue of spatial competition between individual retailers to be examined in a way only accessible to agent-based models, allowing each model retailer autonomous control over optimizing their price. The hybrid model is shown to be successful at recreating spatial pricing dynamics at a national scale, simulating the effects of a rise in crude oil prices as well as accurately predicting which retailers were most susceptible to closure over a 10-year period.