On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-17-0143.1
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Judi, David R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Balaguru, Karthik;Foltz, Gregory R.;Judi, David R.
海表温度（SST）和热带气旋热潜势（TCHP）是将海洋对飓风强度的影响纳入美国国家飓风中心飓风强度统计预测计划（SHIPS）的指标。虽然SST和TCHP都是上层海洋热含量的有用测量，但它们并不能准确地反映海洋分层效应。在这里，它表明，取代SST的船舶框架内的动态温度T-dy，占海洋的负反馈风暴引起的垂直混合和海面冷却所产生的飓风的强度，提高了模型的性能。虽然SST和TCHP模型解释了36小时强度变化的方差约41%，但用T-dy代替SST将解释的方差增加到近44%。这些结果表明，海洋反馈的表示，即使是通过相对简单的公式，如Tdy，可以提高统计飓风强度预测模型，如船舶的性能。
Sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean's influence on hurricane intensification into the National Hurricane Center's Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). While both SST and TCHP serve as useful measures of the upper-ocean heat content, they do not accurately represent ocean stratification effects. Here, it is shown that replacing SST within the SHIPS framework with a dynamic temperature T-dy, which accounts for the oceanic negative feedback to the hurricane's intensity arising from storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface cooling, improves the model performance. While the model with SST and TCHP explains about 41% of the variance in 36-h intensity changes, replacing SST with T-dy increases the variance explained to nearly 44%. These results suggest that representation of the oceanic feedback, even through relatively simple formulations such as Tdy, may improve the performance of statistical hurricane intensity prediction models such as SHIPS.