Using ABM to Study the Potential of Land Use Change for Mitigation of Food Deserts
Using ABM to Study the Potential of Land Use Change for Mitigation of Food Deserts
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/su14159715
复制
发表时间：
2022-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Jha, Manoj K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gebrehiwot, Asmamaw A.;Hashemi-Beni, Leila;Jha, Manoj K.
土地利用转型是人类对地球系统造成的最深刻的改变之一。它可以支持更好的土地管理和决策，以提高粮食产量，满足特定地区的粮食需求。然而，土地利用变化建模涉及到人类驱动因素和自然或环境约束的复杂性。本研究使用导致粮食沙漠的关键指标开发了一个基于代理人的土地利用转变模型（ABM）。以北卡罗来纳州吉尔福德县为例，对该模型的性能进行了评估。建模输入包括土地覆盖，气候变化（降雨和温度），土壤质量，土地利用相关政策和人口增长。研究这些因素之间的相互关系可以改进有效的土地使用政策的制定，并帮助负责机构和决策者相应地制定计划，以改善粮食安全。基于代理的模型说明了如何以及何时个人或社区可以使特定的土地覆盖过渡，以满足社区的粮食需求。结果表明，基于代理的模型可以有效地监测土地利用和环境变化，随着时间的推移，可视化潜在的风险，并帮助受影响的社区相应的计划。
Land-use transition is one of the most profound human-induced alterations of the Earth's system. It can support better land management and decision-making for increasing the yield of food production to fulfill the food needs in a specific area. However, modeling land-use change involves the complexity of human drivers and natural or environmental constraints. This study develops an agent-based model (ABM) for land use transitions using critical indicators that contribute to food deserts. The model's performance was evaluated using Guilford County, North Carolina, as a case study. The modeling inputs include land covers, climate variability (rainfall and temperature), soil quality, land-use-related policies, and population growth. Studying the interrelationships between these factors can improve the development of effective land-use policies and help responsible agencies and policymakers plan accordingly to improve food security. The agent-based model illustrates how and when individuals or communities could make specific land-cover transitions to fulfill the community's food needs. The results indicate that the agent-based model could effectively monitor land use and environmental changes to visualize potential risks over time and help the affected communities plan accordingly.