Analyzing Third World Urbanization: A Model with Empirical Evidence
Analyzing Third World Urbanization: A Model with Empirical Evidence
复制标题
分析第三世界城市化：具有经验证据的模型
DOI：
10.1086/451817
复制
发表时间：
1990
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
J. Brueckner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Brueckner
第三世界的经济发展伴随着城市的爆炸式增长。安德烈·罗杰斯总结的联合国数据显示，从1950年到1990年（预计），发达国家的城市年增长率在1.5%到2.4%之间，而在此期间，第三世界城市的增长率在3.9%到4.7%之间。这种增长使第三世界城市人口的比例增加了一倍多，从1950年的约17%上升到1990年预计的36%。相比之下，发达国家的城市人口比例预计在此期间将从53%上升到75%。第三世界的快速城市化也造就了许多大城市。联合国的数据显示，1950年世界上15个最大的城市中有11个在发达国家，而到2000年，前15名中只有3个发达国家的城市（东京、洛杉矶和纽约）。此外，在2000年预计人口达到100万或更多的414个城市中，264个多数将位于第三世界国家。
Economic development in the third world is being accompanied by explosive urban growth. United Nations data summarized by Andrei Rogers show that while annual urban growth rates in developed countries ranged between 1.5% and 2.4% from 1950 to 1990 (projected), third-world cities grew at rates between 3.9% and 4.7% over this period.1 This growth has more than doubled the urban share of the thirdworld population, which rose from approximately 17% in 1950 to a projected 36% in 1990. The urban share in developed countries, by contrast, is projected to rise from 53% to 75% over this period. Rapid third-world urbanization has also created very large cities. The U.N. data show that while developed countries claimed 11 of the world's 15 largest cities in 1950, the top 15 will include only three developedcountry cities by the year 2000 (Tokyo, Los Angeles, and New York). Moreover, of the 414 cities expected to house a million or more people in the year 2000, a majority of 264 will be located in third-world countries.