Prototype Model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk Assessment
Prototype Model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk Assessment
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0742-597x(2002)18:1(7
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
T. Zayed;Luh-Maan Chang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Zayed;Luh-Maan Chang
建设-运营-转让~BOT！项目交付方式，即由私营部门资助、设计、建造、运营和维护设施，然后在规定的特许期后将其移交给政府，目前在发展中国家越来越受欢迎。与传统的项目交付方式相比，BOT承担者面临着较高的风险，因此必须特别注意风险的分析和管理。识别、分析和分配各种类型的风险是验证私人推动的基础设施项目的一个重要方面。本文提出的BOT风险模型是一个原型评估模型，为BOT项目风险评估提供了一个逻辑、可靠、一致的流程。该模型引入BOT风险指数~F！，其依据是八个主要BOT风险领域的实际表现。在构建该指数时使用了两种不同的建模方法：一种新开发的模型和一种改编的Dias和Ioannou模型。该指标不仅可用于BOT项目的风险评价，也可用于对BOT项目进行排序，选择风险最低的项目。
The build-operate-transfer ~BOT! approach for project delivery, where the private sector has to finance, design, build, operate, and maintain the facility and then transfer it to the government after a specified concession period, is now gaining widespread popularity in developing countries. Compared with conventional project delivery methods, BOT sponsors expose themselves to a high risk, so that special attention must be paid to analyzing and managing risks. The identification, analysis, and allocation of various types of risks are an important aspect for the validation of privately promoted infrastructure projects. The BOT risk model presented in this paper is a prototype evaluation model that provides a logical, reliable, and consistent procedure for assessing the BOT project risk. The proposed model introduced the BOT risk index ~F!, which relied on the actual performance of eight main BOT risk areas. Two different modeling approaches were used in constructing this index: a new developed and an adapted Dias and Ioannou model. Not only can this index be used for BOT projects' risk evaluation, but also for ranking them to select the lowest risk project as well.