Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post-Crisis East Asia
Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post-Crisis East Asia
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危机后东亚区域汇率安排的拟议战略
DOI：
10.1596/1813-9450-2503
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Takagi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Kawai;S. Takagi
在讨论了与东亚国家汇率政策相关的主要概念和实证问题之后，作者提出了旨在促进区域内汇率稳定和区域经济增长的区域汇率安排。他们认为：（1）对于发展中国家来说，汇率波动会严重损害贸易和投资，不宜实行自由浮动汇率制度。2)鉴于东亚地区内贸易的比重较高，贸易构成也较为相似，因此汇率政策应该以维持地区内汇率稳定为目标，以促进贸易、投资和经济增长。3)目前维持对美元汇率稳定的政策是确保区域内汇率稳定的非正式、不协调的机制，是次优的。一个务实的政策选择--有利于在货币和汇率政策方面建立更强有力的合作框架--将名义汇率稳定的目标转向一篮子三极货币（美元、日元和欧元）的协调行动。这一替代办法将更好地反映该区域多样化的贸易结构和外国直接投资。作者设想没有刚性挂钩。相反，至少在最初阶段，每个国家都可以选择自己的正式汇率安排--无论是货币局制度、爬行钉住还是大幅钉住一篮子货币。在危机时期，联系汇率可能会暂时暂停，但前提是汇率将尽快恢复到原来的水平。只有在极端的情况下，才调整这一水平，以反映新的平衡条件。
After discussing major conceptual, and empirical issues relevant to the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, the authors propose a regional exchange rate arrangement designed to promote intra-regional exchange rate stability, and regional economic growth. They argue that: 1) For developing countries, exchange rate volatility tends to significantly hurt trade and investment, making it inadvisable to adopt a system of freely floating exchange rates. 2) Given the high share of intra-regional trade, and the similarity of trade composition in East Asia, exchange rate policy should be directed toward maintaining intra-regional exchange rate stability, to promote trade, investment, and economic growth. 3) the current policy of maintaining exchange rate stability against U.S. dollar as an informal, uncoordinated mechanisms for ensuring intra-regional exchange rate stability is sub-optimal. A pragmatic policy option - conducive to a more robust framework for cooperation in monetary, and exchange rate policy - wold be a coordinated action to shift the target of nominal exchange rate stability, to a basket of tri-polar currencies (the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Euro). This alternative would better reflect the region's diverse structure of trade, and foreign direct investment. The authors envision no rigid peg. Instead, at least initially, each country could choose its own formal exchange rate arrangement - be it currency board, a crawling peg, or a basket peg with wide margins. At times of crisis, the peg might be temporarily suspended, subject to the rule that the exchange rate would be restored to the original level as soon as practical. Only in extreme circumstances, would the level be adjusted to reflect new equilibrium conditions.
盯住美元是如何失败的？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
A Basket Currency for Asia
影响因子：
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作者：
Takatoshi lto;Eiii Ogawa;Yuri Nagataki Sasaki
通讯作者：
Yuri Nagataki Sasaki