Investigation of Spatio-temporal Satellite Thermal IR Anomalies Associated with the Awaran Earthquake (Sep 24, 2013; M 7.7), Pakistan
Investigation of Spatio-temporal Satellite Thermal IR Anomalies Associated with the Awaran Earthquake (Sep 24, 2013; M 7.7), Pakistan
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DOI：
10.1007/s00024-019-02149-9
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发表时间：
2019-03
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
N. Ahmad;Adnan Barkat;Aamir Ali;M. Sultan;Khurram Rasul;Zafar Iqbal;Talat Iqbal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Ahmad;Adnan Barkat;Aamir Ali;M. Sultan;Khurram Rasul;Zafar Iqbal;Talat Iqbal
由于地震发生的复杂现象和岩石圈的等级性质的不确定性，对即将发生的未来地震的可靠预测仍然是值得怀疑的。然而，许多回顾性研究表明，地震伴随过程的影响范围内的地震预报。在这方面，这里试图验证与Awaran地震（2013年9月24日）相关的非常大（M7.7）和浅（深度15 km）的热红外辐射增强。对卫星热成像记录进行分析，以确定在适当的选定时间窗（2013年7月27日至2013年11月16日）内震中区域（北纬25-29°;东经63-67°）周围地震前后变化的可能影响。震前卫星图像记录显示，在地震孕育区内，大约6-10天前就出现了非常清晰和明显的热异常，而震后图像记录的分析显示，热异常随时间的变化呈下降趋势。2013年9月18日（距事件发生前6天）的日平均地表温度（LST）出现了7-9 °C的异常升高，并通过95%置信区间的统计判据进一步验证了这一点。此外，每日和5年平均LST的比较和百分位数分析也显示与该特定事件相关的异常增加。除此之外，本文的研究结果也与前人的研究结果相一致，并为地震预报研究提出了一种多层次的策略。
The reliable forecast of imminent future earthquakes is still questionable due to uncertainties regarding the complex phenomena of earthquake occurrence and the hierarchical nature of the lithosphere. However, numerous retrospective studies suggest the implications of earthquake-accompanying processes within the context of earthquake forecasting. In this connection, an attempt is made here to verify the enhancement in thermal IR emissions associated with the extraordinary major (M7.7) and shallow (depth ≈ 15 km) Awaran earthquake (Sep 24, 2013). The satellite thermal imagery record is analyzed to identify the possible effect of pre- and post-seismic changes around the epicentral region (latitude 25–29°N; longitude 63–67°E) for a suitable selected time window (July 27, 2013 to Nov 16, 2013). The pre-earthquake satellite imagery records reveal a very clear and distinct thermal anomaly developed within the earthquake preparation zone almost 6–10 days earlier, while the analysis of post-earthquake imagery record shows a decreasing trend of thermal anomaly as a function of time. The daily land surface temperature (LST) shows an anomalous rise of 7–9 °C on Sep 18, 2013, almost 6 days prior to the event occurrence, which is further authenticated by the statistical criterionwith a confidence interval of 95%. Furthermore, the comparative and percentile analysis of daily and 5-year-averaged LST also exhibits abnormal increase associated with this particular event. In addition to all above, the present study is also consistent with the earlier findings and suggests a multi-precursory strategy for earthquake forecasting research.