Completing the demographic transition
Completing the demographic transition
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.1999.00515.x
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发表时间：
1999-09-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Bulatao, RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bongaarts, J;Bulatao, RA
尽管许多国家的生育率持续下降，但世界人口正在经历一个迅速扩张的时期，预计到人口转型结束时，其规模将达到100亿。确定并量化了这一增长的三个原因：1)生育率高于每名妇女两个幸存子女的更替水平；2)死亡率继续下降；3)年轻结构造成的人口势头。提出了一组简单的解析表达式，用于从标准人口统计指标估计这些因素。人口势头被证明是大多数国家和地区未来增长的主要原因。
Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, the population of the world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion, and its size is expected to reach 10 billion by the end of the demographic transition. Three causes of this growth are identified and quantified: 1) fertility above the replacement level of two surviving children per woman, 2) continuing declines in mortality, and 3) population momentum resulting from a young age structure. A set of simple analytic expressions is proposed for estimating these factors from standard demographic indicators. Population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth in most countries and regions.