The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19
The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Khan, Adnan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ali, Mohsin;Shah, Syed Touqeer H.;Khan, Adnan
本文建立了冠状病毒病（COVID-19）传播的确定性流行病模型。我们在模型中加入了无症状区、隔离区和隔离区，因为研究强调了这些人群对疾病传播的重要性。我们计算了基本繁殖数，并表明这种疾病已经灭绝，而且这种疾病是地方性的。通过敏感性分析，我们确定对检疫和隔离率最敏感，并且需要保持高水平的检疫和隔离以控制疾病。在此基础上，我们制定了最佳的检疫和隔离策略，并注意到在爆发的早期阶段需要保持高水平。利用武汉疫情的数据，我们估计的数据虽然与文献中的其他估计一致，但仍处于较低的水平。武汉疫情已接近尾声。
We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number and show that for the disease dies out and for the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.