Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model
Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model
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在气候尺度上模拟地中海强降水事件：CNRM-AROME 允许对流区域气候模型的面向对象评估
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
V. Ducrocq
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Caillaud;S. Somot;A. Alias;I. Bernard;Q. Fumière;Olivier Laurantin;Y. Seity;V. Ducrocq
在气候尺度上模拟罕见但影响巨大的地中海强降水事件（HPEs）仍然是一个很大程度上开放的科学挑战。这个问题是解决在这里运行一个38年之久的连续模拟CNRM-AROME对流允许区域气候模式（CP-RCM）在2.5公里的水平分辨率和一个大的泛阿尔卑斯山域。首先，通过与选定的高空间和时间分辨率观测数据集进行比较，通过基本的欧拉统计方法对模拟进行评估。西北地中海秋季极端降水是正确的CNRM-AROME代表在每日规模，甚至更好地在每小时的规模，在位置，强度，频率和年际变化，尽管低估了每日和每小时的最高强度超过200毫米/天和40毫米/小时，分别。CP-RCM与其强迫对流参数化的12.5公里区域气候模式（RCM）的比较表明，CP-RCM有明显的附加值，证实了以前的研究。其次，提出了一种面向对象的拉格朗日方法，实现了一个降水系统的检测和跟踪算法，适用于模型和参考COMEPHORE降水数据集的20个秋季。使用法国地中海HPEs作为对象，CNRM-AROME的能力，以代表秋季对流系统和轨道的主要特点是突出的数量，强度，面积，持续时间，速度和严重程度。此外，该模型能够模拟类似于观测的长期和严重的极端坠落事件。然而，它不能很好地再现具有最高强度（大于40 mm/h的最大强度）的沉淀系统和轨迹，并且该模型高估细胞尺寸的趋势随着强度而增加。
Modelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model’s tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.5880
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
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作者：
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