Optimal planning and operation of irrigation systems under water resource constraints in Oman considering climatic uncertainty
Optimal planning and operation of irrigation systems under water resource constraints in Oman considering climatic uncertainty
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s12665-011-1135-4
复制
发表时间：
2012-03
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
N. Schütze;S. Kloss;F. Lennartz;Ahmed Al Bakri;G. Schmitz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Schütze;S. Kloss;F. Lennartz;Ahmed Al Bakri;G. Schmitz
在这方面的贡献，我们介绍了一个随机框架，灌溉供水的优化规划和操作的决策支持。这包括（1）一个天气发生器，用于在IPCC情景的基础上模拟气候变化的区域影响，（2）一个定制的进化优化算法，用于有限供水的最优灌溉调度，（3）一个以合理的方式模拟水传输和作物生长的机械模型，以及（4）一个核密度估计器，用于估计随机生产力，利润，和需求函数的非参数方法。作为一个结果的几个模拟/优化运行的框架内，我们提出了随机作物水分生产函数（SCWPF）为不同的作物，可作为一个基本的工具，用于评估气候变化的影响，对特定作物和特定的农业领域的潜在产量的风险。阿曼苏丹国Al Batinah地区的一个农业区的案例研究被用来说明这些方法。此外，气候变化的微观经济影响和农业生态系统的脆弱性进行了讨论。
In this contribution, we introduce a stochastic framework for decision support for optimal planning and operation of water supply in irrigation. This consists of (1) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change on the basis of IPCC scenarios, (2) a tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply, (3) a mechanistic model for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner, and (4) a kernel density estimator for estimating stochastic productivity, profit, and demand functions by a nonparametric method. As a result of several simulation/optimization runs within the framework, we present stochastic crop-water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops which can be used as a basic tool for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield for specific crops and specific agricultural areas. A case study for an agricultural area in the Al Batinah region of the Sultanate of Oman is used to illustrate these methodologies. In addition, microeconomic impacts of climate change and the vulnerability of the agro-ecological system are discussed.