Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1188566
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发表时间：
2010-09-10
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Matthews, H. Damon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis, Steven J.;Caldeira, Ken;Matthews, H. Damon
减缓气候变化需要克服政治、技术和地球物理系统的惯性。其中，只有地球物理变暖承诺被量化了。我们估计了现有二氧化碳排放装置所代表的对未来排放和变暖的承诺。我们计算出，2010年至2060年间，现有基础设施燃烧化石燃料产生的累计二氧化碳排放量为496亿吨（在下限和上限情景下为282至701亿吨），迫使平均升温比工业化前时代高1.3摄氏度（1.1至1.4摄氏度），大气中二氧化碳浓度低于百万分之430。由于这些条件可能会避免气候变化的许多关键影响，我们得出的结论是，最具威胁性的排放源尚未建成。然而，除非采取特别的努力来开发替代方案，否则排放二氧化碳的基础设施将会扩大。
Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower-and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3 degrees C (1.1 degrees to 1.4 degrees C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.