Tropical Cyclone Seeds, Transition Probabilities, and Genesis
Tropical Cyclone Seeds, Transition Probabilities, and Genesis
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0922.1
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发表时间：
2022-06-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
有人提出，热带气旋发生率可以表示为“种子”频率和取决于大尺度环境的转变概率的乘积。这里证明了种子频率和转移概率之间的划分取决于种子定义，并且这种划分的存在并不能解决热带气旋频率是否更多地受环境条件或背景天气统计控制这一长期存在的问题。本文认为，热带气旋气候主要受区域环境控制，全球热带气旋活动对全球均匀辐射强迫的响应可能更多地受区域性响应的控制，而不是受平均响应的控制。
It has been proposed that tropical cyclogenesis rates can be expressed as the product of the frequency of "seeds" and a transition probability that depends on the large-scale environment. Here it is demonstrated that the partitioning between seed frequency and transition probability depends on the seed definition and that the existence of such a partition does not resolve the long-standing issue of whether tropical cyclone frequency is controlled more by environmental conditions or by the statistics of background weather. It is here argued that tropical cyclone climatology is mostly controlled by regional environment and that the response of global tropical cyclone activity to globally uniform radiative forcing may be more controlled by the regionality of the response than by the mean response.