Examining the Predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 Using Multiple NWP Systems
Examining the Predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 Using Multiple NWP Systems
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-15-0010.1
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
O. Tripathi;M. Baldwin;A. Charlton-Perez;M. Charron;J. Cheung;S. Eckermann;E. Gerber;D. Jackson;Y. Kuroda;A. Lang;J. McLay;R. Mizuta;C. Reynolds;G. Roff;M. Sigmond;S. Son;T. Stockdale
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作者：
O. Tripathi;M. Baldwin;A. Charlton-Perez;M. Charron;J. Cheung;S. Eckermann;E. Gerber;D. Jackson;Y. Kuroda;A. Lang;J. McLay;R. Mizuta;C. Reynolds;G. Roff;M. Sigmond;S. Son;T. Stockdale
利用5个数值预报系统进行了首次多模式研究，以估计北方平流层突然变暖（SSW）的可预报性。在2012/13年冬季，12月底观测到异常向上传播的行星波活动，随后在2013年1月2日左右西风环流迅速减速，2013年1月7日，60°N和10 hPa的纬向平均纬向风逆转为东风。在这一平流层动力活动之后，对流层急流向赤道方向移动，北大西洋上空出现高压异常，导致联合王国和北方欧洲出现严寒。在这五个模型中，大多数都能提前10天预报到SSW事件。然而，只有一些集合成员在大多数模式预测西风减弱时，模式初始化SSW提前15天。进一步的动力学分析表明，这次事件的特征是...
AbstractThe first multimodel study to estimate the predictability of a boreal sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012/13 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed toward the end of December, which was followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal-mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the United Kingdom and northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized ...