Linear and nonlinear hydrological cycle responses to increasing sea surface temperature.
Linear and nonlinear hydrological cycle responses to increasing sea surface temperature.
复制标题
对海面温度升高的线性和非线性水文循环响应。
DOI：
10.1002/2017gl076745
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
and M. Watanabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Toda;M.;and M. Watanabe
迄今为止，在气候变化研究中还没有建立一个有效的机制来确定响应不同幅度和水平分布的海表温度（SST）升高的热带降雨模式。为了研究降水模式随海温增加的变化，我们利用30年的海温观测记录进行了一系列大气环流模式试验，其中海温全球均匀增加1 K、2 K和4 K或El Niño/La Niña样海温异常。尽管全球平均降水随海温的增加而线性增加，而与海温的空间分布无关，但区域降水的变化与海温均匀增加的幅度呈非线性变化。由于大气环流响应的非线性，区域水文敏感性越大，海温增加越小。然而，降水对海温模式的响应与海温变化幅度呈准线性关系，可以与对海温均匀增加的响应分离。因此，本研究强调了均匀和结构化海温增加的相对幅值对未来降水预测的重要性。
An effective mechanism for determining tropical rainfall patterns in response to sea surface temperature (SST) increases with varying magnitude and horizontal distribution has not been developed thus far in climate change studies. In order to examine changes in precipitation pattern with increasing SST, we conducted a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments using a 30 year record of observed SST for which either globally uniform SST increases of 1 K, 2 K, and 4 K or El Niño/La Niña‐like patterned SST anomaly has been imposed. Although the global‐mean precipitation linearly increases with the SST increase irrespective of its spatial distribution, regional precipitation changes were found to occur nonlinearly depending on the magnitude of the uniform SST increase. Owing to nonlinearity in the atmospheric circulation response, the regional hydrological sensitivity was larger with a smaller increase in SST. The precipitation response to the SST pattern was, however, quasi‐linear to the magnitude of the SST change and can be separated from the response to the uniform SST increase. This study thus emphasizes the importance of relative amplitudes of uniform and structured SST increases for future rainfall projection.