Statistical measures for evaluating protected group under-representation: analysis of the conflicting inferences drawn from the same data in People v. Bryant and Ambrose v. Booker
Statistical measures for evaluating protected group under-representation: analysis of the conflicting inferences drawn from the same data in People v. Bryant and Ambrose v. Booker
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评估受保护群体代表性不足的统计措施：对从人民诉布莱恩特和安布罗斯诉布克案中相同数据得出的相互矛盾的推论进行分析
DOI：
10.1093/lpr/mgv011
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Qing Pan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Gastwirth;Wenjing Xu;Qing Pan
由于用于召集潜在陪审员的计算机程序中的错误，陪审团中的非洲裔美国人比例（4.17%）仅为年龄合格人口的一半（8.25%），持续了大约15个月。2012年6月，在安布罗斯诉布克案（Ambrose v. Booker）中，第六巡回法院接受了统计证据，认为其足以满足美国最高法院在杜伦案（Duren）中确立的不公平陈述的先决条件。同一天，密歇根州S。CT.在“人民诉布莱恩特”一案中说，统计数据是不够的。密歇根州法院接受了一项新措施，即代表性不足的风险差异（DR）。DR措施被证明是非常严格的，并提出了一种替代措施的基础上，从陪审团池中随机选择的陪审团将有更少的少数民族比从符合年龄的人口中选择的陪审团的概率。最终在陪审团中任职的少数人也取决于当事方提出的强制性质疑的公正性。检测不公平的方法进行审查，其有效性取决于少数民族的数量上的venire。对密歇根州数据的重新分析表明，如果陪审团中非洲裔美国人的比例等于他们在符合年龄条件的人口中的比例，检察官只能将他们在陪审团中的比例减少到他们在人口中的比例的80%左右。相比之下，密歇根州法院采用的基于DR措施的充分代表性标准可能导致实际陪审团中几乎没有少数民族，因为只有3%的陪审团有足够数量的少数民族，可以将检察官的强制性质疑全部归类为重要。我们的研究结果表明，当评估统计数据的人口结构的陪审团池的法律的意义，法院应考虑可能减少少数民族的代表性，可以发生在强制性质疑程序。
Due to an error in the computer program used to summon potential jurors for service, the African-American percentage (4.17%) of jury pools was only one-half their percentage (8.25%) of the age-eligible population for about fifteen months. In June 2012, inAmbrose v. Booker, the Sixth Circuit accepted the statistical evidence as sufficient to meet the requirements for aprima faciecase of unfair representation the U.S. Supreme Court established inDuren. On the same day, the Michigan S. Ct. inPeople v. Bryantsaid that the statistics were insufficient. The Michigan Court accepted a new measure, the disparity of the risk (DR), of under-representation. The DR measure is shown to be extremely stringent and an alternative measure based on the probability that a jury randomly selected from the jury pool will have fewer minorities than a jury selected from the age-eligible population is proposed. The minority fraction of individuals ultimately serving on juries also depends on the fairness of the peremptory challenges made by the parties. A method for detecting unfairness is reviewed; its effectiveness depends on the number of minorities on the venire. A reanalysis of the Michigan data shows that if the proportion of African-Americans in the jury pool equaled their proportion in the age-eligible population, prosecutors could only reduce their proportion on juries to about 80% of their proportion in the population. In contrast, the criteria for adequate representativeness based on the DR measure adopted by the Michigan Court could lead to virtually no minorities serving on actual juries as only three percent of the venires would have a sufficient number of minorities to classify a prosecutor's peremptory challenging all of them as significant. Our results indicate that when assessing statistics on the demographic mix of jury pools for legal significance, courts should consider the possible reduction in minority representation that can occur in the peremptory challenge proceedings.