Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China
Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China
复制标题
人口流动驱动中国 COVID-19 的时空分布
DOI：
10.1038/s41586-020-2284-y
复制
发表时间：
2020-04-29
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Christakis, Nicholas A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jia, Jayson S.;Lu, Xin;Christakis, Nicholas A.
突然、大规模和广泛的人类迁徙可将局部疾病暴发扩大为广泛的流行病（1-4）。因此，对人口流动总量进行快速和准确的跟踪可以提供流行病学方面的信息。在这里，我们使用了2020年1月1日至1月24日期间离开或过境武汉的个人的11,478,484个移动电话数据，这些个人迁移到中国大陆的296个县。首先，我们记录了隔离在停止流动方面的有效性。其次，我们表明，武汉人口外流的分布准确地预测了截至2020年2月19日中国大陆地区严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）感染的相对频率和地理分布。第三，我们开发了一个时空“风险来源”模型，该模型利用人口流动数据（将疫情中心产生的风险操作化），不仅可以预测确诊病例的分布，还可以在早期阶段确定具有高风险传播的地区。第四，利用该风险源模型，统计得出基于武汉人口外流的COVID-19地理传播和增长模式；该模型产生了一个基准趋势和一个指数，用于评估不同地点的COVID-19社区传播风险。任何拥有现有数据的国家的决策者都可以使用这一方法进行快速和准确的风险评估，并在持续爆发之前规划有限资源的分配。中国人口流动建模有助于预测COVID-19确诊病例的分布，并在早期阶段确定SARS-CoV-2传播的高风险地区。
Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics(1-4). Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal 'risk source' model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan; the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks.Modelling of population flows in China enables the forecasting of the distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the identification of areas at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at an early stage.