Analysis of dry/wet conditions using the standardized precipitation index and its potential usefulness for drought/flood monitoring in Hunan Province, China
Analysis of dry/wet conditions using the standardized precipitation index and its potential usefulness for drought/flood monitoring in Hunan Province, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s00477-012-0589-6
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Shi, Peijun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Du, Juan;Fang, Jian;Shi, Peijun
局部干湿条件和极端降雨事件是区域水资源和灾害风险管理中的重要问题。已经开展了广泛的研究，以调查气候变化背景下干/湿条件的变化和对极端降雨事件的适应性反应。然而，适用的工具及其有用性还没有得到充分的研究，在湖南省，中国粮食主产区，已频繁遭受洪水和干旱，有关的研究更是有限。利用标准化降水指数（SPI）研究了湖南省不同时间尺度的干湿状况的时空变化及其年、季变化趋势。此外，为了验证潜在的有用性的干旱/洪水监测的SPI，河流流量和SPI之间的相关性在多个时间尺度上进行了检查，极端SPI和历史干旱/洪水事件的发生之间的关系进行了探讨。结果表明，近57年来，湖南省主要河流上游的干旱年数多于中下游，且呈现出春、秋两季偏干、夏、冬两季偏湿的趋势。我们还发现，河流流量和SPI序列之间有很强的相关性，最大的相关系数发生在2个月的时间尺度。不同时间尺度的SPI在干旱/洪水监测中的有用性可能不同，这突出表明，在使用SPI监测干旱和洪水时，需要全面考虑各种时间尺度。
Local dry/wet conditions and extreme rainfall events are of great concern in regional water resource and disaster risk management. Extensive studies have been carried out to investigate the change of dry/wet conditions and the adaptive responses to extreme rainfall events within the context of climate change. However, applicable tools and their usefulness are still not sufficiently studied, and in Hunan Province, a major grain-producing area in China that has been frequently hit by flood and drought, relevant research is even more limited. This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variation of dry/wet conditions and their annual/seasonal trends in Hunan with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at various time scales. Furthermore, to verify the potential usefulness of SPI for drought/flood monitoring, the correlation between river discharge and SPI at multiple time scales was examined, and the relation between extreme SPI and the occurrence of historical drought/flood events is explored. The results indicate that the upper reaches of the major rivers in Hunan Province have experienced more dry years than the middle and lower reaches over the past 57 years, and the region shows a trend of becoming drier in the spring and autumn seasons and wetter in the summer and winter seasons. We also found a strong correlation between river discharge and SPI series, with the maximum correlation coefficient occurred at the time scale of 2 months. SPI at different time scales may vary in its usefulness in drought/flood monitoring, and this highlights the need for a comprehensive consideration of various time scales when SPI is employed to monitor droughts and floods.