Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes
Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes
复制标题
未来年度极端气温概率发生重大变化
DOI：
10.1002/asl.1061
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Slater R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Slater R
由于全球变暖，预计造成重大环境和人道主义影响的极端温度事件的频率和程度将会增加。最新一代的气候模型预测，耦合模型比对项目第六阶段（CMIP6），提供了一个新的和改进的数据库来调查未来日常规模极端温度事件的变化。本研究考察了四个大型 CMIP6 星系团 1 天、3 天和 5 天平均年最高气温的变化。它使用广义极值 (GEV) 方法分析了全球变暖 1.5 和 2°C（2016 年《巴黎协定》强调的水平）以及 3°C 时极端日平均气温的变化。使用 SSP370 情景中每日近地表气温的年度最大值来表征极热事件。全球分布模式（位置参数）的变化遵循长期夏季变暖，并表现出非常相似的空间模式。变异性（尺度参数）的变化显示出热带地区增加和高纬度地区减少的明显趋势，而分布尾部（形状参数）的变化显示出全球一致性较差的趋势，但北极海冰上有清晰的信号，这种行为也存在变异性。风险比 (RR) 表明，目前全球范围内出现 10 年一遇的极端高温事件的概率随平均气温变化而增加，其中热带地区增加幅度更大。当气温升高 1.5°C 和 3°C 时，全球陆地 RR 的平均变化范围分别为 3.1-3.6 至 7.9-8.3。对于后一种情况，这表明在高度变暖的情况下，未来几乎每年都会发生以前罕见的、十年一遇的夏季极端事件。
Extreme temperature events causing significant environmental and humanitarian impacts are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude due to global warming. The latest generation of climate model projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), provides a new and improved database to investigate change in future daily scale extreme temperature events. This study examines the changes in 1, 3, and 5 day averaged annual maximum temperature in four large CMIP6 ensembles. It analyses, using a generalized extreme value (GEV) method, the change in extreme daily mean temperatures at 1.5 and 2°C of global warming, levels highlighted by the 2016 Paris Agreement, and additionally at 3°C. Extremely hot events are characterized using the annual maxima of daily near surface air temperature in the SSP370 scenario. Global changes in the mode of the distributions (location parameter) follow long‐term summer warming and show very similar spatial patterns. Changes in variability (scale parameter) show a clear trend of increases over the tropics and decreases over higher latitudes, while changes to the tails of distributions (shape parameter) show less globally consistent trends but clear signals over the Arctic sea ice, behaviour also seen in variability. Risk ratios (RRs) indicating the change in probability of hot daily extremes that currently have a 10 year return period increase globally with mean temperature change, with greater increases over the tropics. Globally averaged changes in RR over land range from 3.1–3.6 to 7.9–8.3 for 1.5 and 3°C of warming, respectively. For the latter case, this indicates previously rare, once‐in‐a‐decade summer extremes will occur almost annually in the future under high warming.
影响因子：
6.8
作者：
Maher, Nicola;Milinski, Sebastian;Marotzke, Jochem
通讯作者：
Marotzke, Jochem