Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020
Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-021-03677-y
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发表时间：
2021-06-07
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Neher, Richard A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hodcroft, Emma B.;Zuber, Moira;Neher, Richard A.
SARS-CoV-21、2在2019年底出现后，通过对病毒基因组序列的系统发育分析以前所未有的详细程度追踪了它的传播(3-5)。尽管该病毒在2020年初边境关闭之前就在全球传播，但此后洲际旅行大大减少。然而，2020年夏天，欧洲境内的旅行重新开始。在这里，我们报告了一种SARS-CoV-2变种，20E(Eu1)，它于2020年初夏在西班牙被发现，随后在欧洲蔓延。我们没有发现这种变种增加了传染性的证据，而是证明了西班牙发病率的上升、旅行的恢复以及缺乏有效的筛查和遏制可能是这种变种成功的原因。尽管有旅行限制，我们估计20E(Eu1)病毒是由夏季旅行者数百次引入欧洲国家的，这可能破坏了当地将SARS-CoV-2感染降至最低的努力。我们的结果表明，即使在有利的流行病学环境中没有实质性传播优势的情况下，变异也可以迅速成为主导。基因组监测对于了解旅行如何影响SARS-CoV-2的传播至关重要，从而在旅行恢复时为未来的遏制策略提供信息。
Following its emergence in late 2019, the spread of SARS-CoV-21,2 has been tracked by phylogenetic analysis of viral genome sequences in unprecedented detail(3-5). Although the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced. However, travel within Europe resumed in the summer of 2020. Here we report on a SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20E (EU1), that was identified in Spain in early summer 2020 and subsequently spread across Europe. We find no evidence that this variant has increased transmissibility, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant's success. Despite travel restrictions, we estimate that 20E (EU1) was introduced hundreds of times to European countries by summertime travellers, which is likely to have undermined local efforts to minimize infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our results illustrate how a variant can rapidly become dominant even in the absence of a substantial transmission advantage in favourable epidemiological settings. Genomic surveillance is critical for understanding how travel can affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes.