Networks of influence and infection: parental choices and childhood disease
Networks of influence and infection: parental choices and childhood disease
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2009.0085
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发表时间：
2009-09-06
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Eames, Ken T. D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eames, Ken T. D.
未接种疫苗的人群有爆发感染的风险。当一个人选择接种疫苗的决定受到其社会群体选择的影响时，这种集群很容易出现。然而，当影响决策的相互作用和那些允许感染传播的相互作用不同时--例如，当父母代表他们的孩子做出疫苗接种决定时--这种社会影响的影响将有多大尚不清楚。在这里，我们使用建模方法来表示父母网络中的社会影响力以及通过儿童网络的感染传播。我们发现，社会影响的效果取决于两个不同网络之间的重叠量;大的重叠意味着选择不接种疫苗的父母群可能有相互作用的孩子，产生未接种疫苗的孩子群。空间上的地方联系可以进一步增加社会影响力的影响。当没有接种疫苗的父母有相互作用的孩子时，爆发的可能性最大。
Clusters of unvaccinated individuals are at risk of outbreaks of infection. When an individual's decision to choose vaccination is influenced by the choices of his social group, such clusters can readily arise. However, when the interactions that influence decision-making and those that permit the transmission of infection are different-for instance, when parents make vaccination decisions on behalf of their children-it is unclear how large the impact of this social influence will be. Here we use a modelling approach to represent social influence within a network of parents and the transmission of infection through a network of children. We show that the effect of social influence depends on the amount of overlap between the two different networks; large overlap means that clusters of parents who choose not to vaccinate are likely to have interacting children, generating clusters of unvaccinated children. Spatially local connections can further increase the impact of social influence. Outbreaks are most likely when parents who do not vaccinate have children who interact.