Emissions estimates of carbon tetrachloride for 1992-2014 in China
Emissions estimates of carbon tetrachloride for 1992-2014 in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.051
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Hu, Jianxin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bie, Pengju;Fang, Xuekun;Hu, Jianxin
自1990年代以来，在全球和区域范围内，采用自下而上和自上而下的方法对四氯化碳（CCl 4、CTC）排放量的估计数存在差异。本研究基于排放函数和综合活动信息，在合理的不确定性条件下，估算了中国1992 - 2014年的排放量。结果表明，1992-2002年，中国的温室气体排放量以6.7（1.9-11.4）%/年的速度从7.3 Gg/年（95%置信区间为5.6 - 9.1 Gg/年）增加到14.0（9.1-19.5）Gg/年，然后在2011年降至4.3（1.9-8.0）Gg/年的最低值。1992-2009年期间，超过54%的排放来自加工剂行业。这些估计值与其他研究的估计值以及本研究中基于2011-2014年期间使用种间相关性方法进行的观察的估计值具有可比性。1992-2009年期间，中国对全球排放量的贡献从7.5%增加到19.5%，但在2010年和2011年分别减少到9.9%和8.0%，这表明中国有效地遵守了《蒙特利尔议定书》及其随后的《修正案》和《调整》，从而逐步淘汰了四氯化碳的排放。本研究的结果有利于缩小中国四氯化碳自下而上的估算与自上而下的排放计算之间的差距。(C)2017爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
Discrepancies in emission estimates of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4, CTC), between bottom-up and top down methods, have been shown since the 1990s at both the global and regional scale. This study estimates the emissions of China from 1992 to 2014 based on emission functions and aggregated activity information given reasonable uncertainties. The results show that emissions increase from 7.3 Gg/yr (5.6 9.1 Gg/yr at 95% confidential interval) to 14.0 (9.1-19.5) Gg/yr with a growth rate of 6.7 (1.9-11.4) %/yr during 1992-2002 and then decrease to a minimum of 4.3 (1.9-8.0) Gg/yr in 2011. More than 54% of the emissions during 1992-2009 are from the process agents sector. The estimates are comparable with those of other studies and those in this study based on observations during 2011-2014 using the interspecies correlation method. China's contribution to global emissions increases from 7.5% to 19.5% during 1992-2009, but the contribution is reduced to 9.9% and 8.0% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent Amendments and Adjustments, whereby CTC emissions are phased-out. The results of this study are beneficial for narrowing the gap between bottom-up estimates and top-down emission calculations of CTC in China. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.