Sub‐Seasonal Predictability of North American Monsoon Precipitation
Sub‐Seasonal Predictability of North American Monsoon Precipitation
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl095602
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
A. Prein;E. Towler;M. Ge;D. Llewellyn;Sarah A. Baker;Shana Tighi;Lucas Barrett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Prein;E. Towler;M. Ge;D. Llewellyn;Sarah A. Baker;Shana Tighi;Lucas Barrett
北美季风（NAM）降雨是美国西南部重要的水资源，提供了该地区年降水量的60-80%。然而，不干运动的降雨量变化很大，水资源管理人员缺乏有关夏季降雨量的熟练指导，这有助于为其管理决策和业务提供信息。在这里，我们表明欧洲中期天气预报中心的模式可以提前几个月在流域尺度上预测NAM季节（6 - 10月）的降水。这可以通过确定天气尺度水汽平流进入NAM区域的天数频率来实现，这大大提高了直接利用模式降水的可预测性。其他预报系统无法提供有用的指导，因为它们的数据同化系统存在缺陷，而且在表示不结盟运动的主要天气特征（包括其遥相关）方面存在偏差。
North American Monsoon (NAM) rainfall is a vital water resource in the United States Southwest, providing 60–80% of the region's annual precipitation. However, NAM rainfall is highly variable and water managers lack skillful guidance on summer rainfall that could help inform their management decisions and operations. Here we show that NAM season (June–October) precipitation can be forecasted by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast's model months ahead at catchment scales. This is possible by identifying the frequency of days with synoptic‐scale moisture advection into the NAM region, which greatly improves predictability over directly utilizing modeled precipitation. Other forecasting systems fail to provide useful guidance due to deficiencies in their data assimilation systems and biases in representing key synoptic features of the NAM including its teleconnections.