The energy landscape predicts flight height and wind turbine collision hazard in three species of large soaring raptor
The energy landscape predicts flight height and wind turbine collision hazard in three species of large soaring raptor
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能源景观预测三种大型猛禽的飞行高度和风力涡轮机碰撞危险
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Calabrese
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Péron;C. Fleming;O. Duriez;J. Fluhr;C. Itty;Sergio A. Lambertucci;K. Safi;E. Shepard;J. Calabrese
总结
大型猛禽与风力涡轮机和其他基础设施的碰撞代表了越来越多的保护问题。我们描述了一种方法来利用猛禽飙升行为的知识来预测猛禽在旋翼扫掠区飞行的概率。从理论上讲，翱翔的猛禽会选择最佳的能量来源（升力），使它们的飞行高度取决于升力条件。该方法可用于规划或运营风电场时预测碰撞危险。然而，影响飞行高度的因素的实证研究迄今为止受到观测误差的阻碍。
我们建议双管齐下。首先，我们将状态空间模型拟合到z轴GPS跟踪数据中，以过滤重尾观测误差，并估计垂直运动参数与描述能量景观（热和地形抬升潜力）的天气变量之间的关系。其次，基于空气动力学和资源选择理论，建立了飞机离地飞行高度的机理模型。这种方法被复制了五个GPS跟踪安第斯秃鹰秃鹰gryphus，八个狮鹫秃鹰Gyps fulvus，和六个金雕Aquila chrysaetos。
在所有的个人，运动参数与热隆起潜力在预期的方向。在所有物种中，碰撞危险是最低的高热隆起潜力值。物种的特异性在碰撞危险的峰值存在的中等值的热隆起潜力可以解释的差异，翼载荷和展弦比。
合成与应用。我们的拟合模型将天气数据（热抬升潜力）转换为碰撞危险的预测（在转子扫掠区飞行的概率），从而可以根据不同的风力开发项目对猛禽造成的相对危险来优先考虑它们。然而，我们的模型应结合施工后的监测文件，并最终占涡轮机避免行为的碰撞率预测。
Summary
Collisions of large soaring raptors with wind turbines and other infrastructures represent a growing conservation concern. We describe a way to leverage knowledge about raptor soaring behaviour to forecast the probability that raptors fly in the rotor-swept zone. Soaring raptors are theoretically expected to select energy sources (uplift) optimally, making their flight height dependent on uplift conditions. This approach can be used to forecast collision hazard when planning or operating wind farms. Empirical investigations of the factors influencing flight height have, however, so far been hindered by observation error.
We propose a two-pronged approach. First, we fitted state-space models to z-axis GPS tracking data to filter heavy-tailed observation error and estimate the relationship between vertical movement parameters and weather variables describing the energy landscape (thermal and orographic uplift potential). Second, we fitted a mechanistic model of flight height above ground based on aerodynamics and resource selection theories. The approach was replicated for five GPS-tracked Andean condors Vultur gryphus, eight griffon vultures Gyps fulvus, and six golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos.
In all individuals, movement parameters correlated with thermal uplift potential in the expected direction. In all species, collision hazard was lowest for high thermal uplift potential values. Species specificities in the presence of a peak in collision hazard for medium values of thermal uplift potential could be explained by differences in wing loading and aspect ratio.
Synthesis and applications. Our fitted models convert weather data (thermal uplift potential) into a prediction of collision hazard (probability to fly in the rotor-swept zone), making it possible to prioritize different wind development projects with respect to the relative hazard they would pose to raptors. However, our model should be combined with post-construction monitoring to document, and eventually account for turbine avoidance behaviours in collision rate predictions.