Climate variability and changes in the agricultural cycle in the Czech Lands from the sixteenth century to the present
Climate variability and changes in the agricultural cycle in the Czech Lands from the sixteenth century to the present
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-018-2508-3
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发表时间：
2019-04
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
R. Brázdil;M. Možný;T. Klír;L. Řezníčková;M. Trnka;P. Dobrovolný;O. Kotyza
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Brázdil;M. Možný;T. Klír;L. Řezníčková;M. Trnka;P. Dobrovolný;O. Kotyza
本文分析了过去五个世纪以来捷克土地长期气候变化对农业周期变化的影响。一系列农作物和葡萄收获（用于酿酒）日期是根据1517-1542年、1561-1622年、1770-1815年、1871-1910年和1971-2010年期间丰富的文献证据汇编而成的。选定了两个示范区：波希米亚西北部的卢尼地区和波希米亚中部的易北河地区。在选定的农业系列的波动进行了比较，在温度，降水和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）系列的各种组合的月份。农业系列的基本统计数据，这些都与气候变量相关。最早的收获期发生在最近的1971-2010年和1517-1542年。其余三个时期的收获日期相对推迟。除了1871-1910年，气温在农业周期中起着重要的作用，而在1871-1910年，气温在农业周期中起着重要的作用，因为当时普遍存在相当潮湿的模式。夏季降水在分析的前三个时期中发挥了重要作用。农业系列与温度的相关系数表明，在几个世纪的过程中，这一因素的权重不断增加。讨论了农业和气候数据中的不确定性对所获结果的可能影响，以及农业周期与气候变量的关系及其更广泛的背景。
This contribution analyses the influence of long-term climate variability on changes in the agricultural cycle in the Czech Lands over the course of the past five centuries. Series of crop- and grape-harvest (for wine) dates were compiled from rich documentary evidence for the periods of 1517–1542, 1561–1622, 1770–1815, 1871–1910 and 1971–2010. Two model areas were selected: the Louny region in north-west Bohemia and the Elbe region in central Bohemia. Fluctuations in selected agricultural series are compared with those expressed in temperature, precipitation and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) series for various combinations of months. The basic statistics for the agricultural series are presented, and these are correlated with climatic variables. The earliest starts for harvests occurred in the recent 1971–2010 period and the 1517–1542 period. Harvest dates were comparatively delayed in the three remaining periods. Air temperature, also combined with the drought effect as expressed by SPEI, played a significant role in the agricultural cycle in all periods analysed except 1871–1910, in which temperatures were notably dominant as quite wet patterns prevailed. Summer precipitation played a significant role in the first three periods analysed. Correlation coefficients of agricultural series with temperatures indicate increasing weight for this factor over the course of the centuries. Possible effects of uncertainties in agricultural and climatic data in the results obtained are discussed, as well as the relationship of the agricultural cycle to climate variables and its broader context.