Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory
Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory
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DOI：
10.1007/s00024-010-0151-8
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
E. Zuccolo;F. Vaccari;A. Peresan;G. Panza
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Zuccolo;F. Vaccari;A. Peresan;G. Panza
使用新确定性方法（NDSHA）和概率方法（PSHA）获得的地震危险性估计进行了比较，为意大利领土。在观测到大地震的地区和被确定为易发生大地震的地区，NDSHA提供的值大于PSHA提供的值，但在低地震活动性地区提供的值较低。这些差异表明，采用灵活、稳健和物理上合理的NDSHA方法，以克服PSHA的已被证明的缺点，从而能够进行可靠的地震危险性估计，特别是对于那些以长期平静为特征的地区，即在历史上只发生过中等规模地震的构造活跃地区。
Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) and the probabilistic approach (PSHA) are compared for the Italian territory. The NDSHA provides values larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, but lower values in low-seismicity areas. These differences suggest the adoption of the flexible, robust and physically sound NDSHA approach to overcome the proven shortcomings of PSHA, thus allowing for a reliable seismic hazard estimation, especially for those areas characterized by a prolonged quiescence, i.e. in tectonically active sites where events of only moderate size have occurred in historical times.