Hydrological impact of widespread afforestation in Great Britain using a large ensemble of modelled scenarios
Hydrological impact of widespread afforestation in Great Britain using a large ensemble of modelled scenarios
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-021-00334-0
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发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
M. Buechel;L. Slater;S. Dadson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Buechel;L. Slater;S. Dadson
在过去十年中，雄心勃勃的植树造林提案的目标是潜在的洪水缓解和碳储存效益，但没有系统的，大规模（>1000平方公里）的定量评估其对径流的影响。在这里，我们评估的影响，造林对径流在12个不同的集水区（c.500- 10000平方公里）使用高分辨率的陆面模型与一个大的合奏造林方案。干旱持续减少中、低流量。中位模拟流量减少2.8% ± 1.0（1 s.d.），或10 mm yr−1± 2.1（1 s.d.），增加10个百分点的集水区阔叶林。我们没有发现全国一致的极端洪水减少。在较大的集水区，种植程度是一个更强的控制径流比位置。我们的研究结果表明，尽管其潜在的环境和社会效益，广泛的植树造林可能会无意中减少水的可用性，特别是在干旱地区，而在极端洪水流量只提供了适度的减少。
Ambitious afforestation proposals in the last decade target potential flood mitigation and carbon storage benefits but without a systematic, large-scale (>1000 km2) quantitative evaluation of their impacts on streamflow. Here, we assess the impact of afforestation on streamflow across twelve diverse catchments (c.500-10,000 km2) using a high-resolution land-surface model with a large ensemble of afforestation scenarios. Afforestation consistently decreases median and low streamflow. Median modelled flow is reduced by 2.8% ± 1.0 (1 s.d.), or 10 mm yr−1± 2.1 (1 s.d.), for a ten-percentage point increase in catchment broadleaf woodland. We find no nationally-consistent reduction of extreme floods. In larger catchments, planting extent is a stronger control on streamflow than location. Our results suggest that despite its potential environmental and societal benefits, widespread afforestation may inadvertently reduce water availability, particularly in drier areas, whilst only providing a modest reduction in extreme flood flows.