Short-Term Earthquake Forecast with the Seismic Sequence Hierarchization Method
Short-Term Earthquake Forecast with the Seismic Sequence Hierarchization Method
复制标题
地震序列分级法短期地震预报
DOI：
10.4236/ojer.2016.52006
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Paolo Balocchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Giulio Riga;Paolo Balocchi
所有的强震之前都有不同持续时间的分支结构，其发展计划在很大程度上是可以预测的，因为它遵循一个组织良好和可识别的模式。本文用地震序列分级方法，形象地解释了地震的孕育过程，称之为“分支构造”。此外，还将确定易于区分将产生平均震级地震的结构和产生强震的结构的标准。基于幅度值的时间振荡，我们解释了用于识别表征分支结构的能量积累阶段的发展阶段的过程，以早期检测能量释放阶段的触发点，并获得关于它将如何随着时间的推移而发展的信息。研究还识别出了能量释放阶段的一些不同量级的前兆信号（触发点），这使我们能够早期预测前震和主震时间位置。我们开发的方法构成了一个真正的创新方法的地震预测分析，这显着不同于以往的发展，因为它认为地震序列的结构不仅是一个震级值的振荡，但也作为一个序列的发展阶段，可能开始开始更早。
All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable pattern. By using a seismic sequence hierarchization method, this study graphically explains the preparation process of an earthquake, called “branching structure”. In addition, criteria apt to distinguish the structures that will produce shocks of average magnitude from strong earthquakes’ will be defined. Based on the temporal oscillations of the magnitude values, we explain the procedure for identifying the developmental stages that characterize the energy accumulation stage of the branching structure, in order to early detect the energy release stage’s trigger point and obtain information on how it will develop over time. The study identifies also some pre-signals (trigger points) of various magnitudes in the energy release stage, which allows us to early predict the foreshocks and mainshock time position. The method we developed constitutes a truly innovative approach for the earthquake forecasting analysis, which dramatically differs from those developed so far, as it considers the structure of the seismic sequence not only as a magnitude values’ oscillation, but also as a sequence of developmental stages that may begin much earlier.
DOI：
10.1198/016214502760046925
发表时间：
2002-06-01
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Zhuang, J;Ogata, Y;Vere-Jones, D
通讯作者：
Vere-Jones, D
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Zhuang, JC;Ogata, Y;Vere-Jones, D
通讯作者：
Vere-Jones, D