Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Anosmia and Other COVID-19 Symptomatology: Preliminary Analysis Using Google and Twitter
Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Anosmia and Other COVID-19 Symptomatology: Preliminary Analysis Using Google and Twitter
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DOI：
10.1177/0194599820932128
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发表时间：
2020-06-02
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
DeConde, Adam S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Panuganti, Bharat A.;Jafari, Aria;DeConde, Adam S.
目的确定Twitter和Google搜索用户关于嗅觉丧失的趋势与美国2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）每日发病率的相对相关性，并与其他严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）症状进行比较。研究设计回顾性观察性研究。研究对象和方法分别使用Google Trends和Crimson Hexagon收集2020年1月1日至4月8日期间生成的关于COVID-19、COVID-19的气味和非气味症状的Google搜索和"推文"频率。比较了将这些用户趋势与COVID-19发病率联系起来的斯皮尔曼系数。排除短时间段后获得的相关性（3月22日至3月24日）对应的广泛阅读的非专业媒体出版物的出版物报告嗅觉丧失作为感染的症状进行了比较分析。（分别为0.744和0.761）和COVID-19（0.899和0.848）与疾病发病率的相关性比嗅觉丧失（0.564和0.539）更强。在研究期间，Twitter用户关于嗅觉丧失的推文更有可能是女性（52%），而不是更普遍的关于COVID-19的推文用户（47%）。在广泛阅读的媒体出版物将嗅觉丧失与SARS-CoV-2感染联系起来之后，与嗅觉丧失相关的Tweet和Google搜索频率显著增加（> 2.5标准差）。大众媒体传播代表了重要的混杂因素，在未来的分析中应予以考虑。
ObjectiveTo determine the relative correlations of Twitter and Google Search user trends concerning smell loss with daily coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence in the United States, compared to other severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) symptoms. To describe the effect of mass media communications on Twitter and Google Search user trends.Study DesignRetrospective observational study.SettingUnited States.Subjects and MethodsGoogle Search and "tweet" frequency concerning COVID-19, smell, and nonsmell symptoms of COVID-19 generated between January 1 and April 8, 2020, were collected using Google Trends and Crimson Hexagon, respectively. Spearman coefficients linking each of these user trends to COVID-19 incidence were compared. Correlations obtained after excluding a short timeframe (March 22 to March 24) corresponding to the publication of a widely read lay media publication reporting anosmia as a symptom of infection was performed for comparative analysis.ResultsGoogle searches and tweets concerning all nonsmell symptoms (0.744 and 0.761, respectively) and COVID-19 (0.899 and 0.848) are more strongly correlated with disease incidence than smell loss (0.564 and 0.539). Twitter users tweeting about smell loss during the study period were more likely to be female (52%) than users tweeting about COVID-19 more generally (47%). Tweet and Google Search frequency pertaining to smell loss increased significantly (>2.5 standard deviations) following a widely read media publication linking smell loss and SARS-CoV-2 infection.ConclusionsGoogle Search and tweet frequency regarding fever and shortness of breath are more robust indicators of COVID-19 incidence than anosmia. Mass media communications represent important confounders that should be considered in future analyses.