The real climate and transformative impact of ICT: A critique of estimates, trends, and regulations.
The real climate and transformative impact of ICT: A critique of estimates, trends, and regulations.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.patter.2021.100340
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发表时间：
2021-09-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Friday A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Freitag C;Berners-Lee M;Widdicks K;Knowles B;Blair GS;Friday A
在这篇文章中，我们对信息和通信技术目前和预计的气候影响进行了批评。同行评议的研究估计，ICT目前在全球温室气体(GHG)排放中的份额为全球温室气体排放量的1.8%-2.8%；调整供应链路径的截断后，我们发现这一比例实际上可能在2.1%至3.9%之间。对于信息和通信技术的未来排放，我们探索分析师预测背后的假设，以了解其差异的原因。所有分析人士都认为，如果没有涉及广泛政治和工业行动的重大协调努力，信息和通信技术排放量就不会减少。我们提供了三个理由，让我们相信如果不进行干预，ICT排放量将会增加，并发现并非所有ICT部门的碳承诺都足够雄心勃勃，能够实现气候目标。我们探讨了强制全部门遵守的政策机制不发达的问题，并认为，在没有全球碳限制的情况下，需要一个新的监管框架，以使信息和通信技术部门的足迹与《巴黎协定》保持一致。为了避免气候变化带来的灾难性后果，全球经济的所有部门，包括信息通信技术(ICT)，都必须保持其温室气体(GHG)排放符合《巴黎协定》。我们审查了同行对ICT温室气体排放的估计，估计ICT在全球温室气体排放中的份额为1.8%-2.8%。我们发现，对于同行评议研究背后的基本假设，存在明显的分歧和许多争论，这些假设可能表明，全球信息和通信技术的排放量高达2.1%-3.9%。所有研究分析师都同意，如果没有重大的政治和工业协调努力，ICT排放就不会减少，我们提供了三个理由来预测如果没有干预，ICT排放实际上会增加。我们的分析表明，并不是所有的ICT碳承诺都足够雄心勃勃，足以实现气候目标，而且缺乏执行全行业气候目标遵守的政策机制。在没有全球碳限制的情况下，需要制定全部门的法规，使信通技术的碳足迹与《巴黎协定》保持一致。在全球碳限制的情况下，信通技术将成为生产力和效用的更大推动者，为该部门创造机会，使其成为全球净零社会的关键组成部分，在财务上取得成功。我们审查了同行对ICT温室气体排放量的估计，这些估计认为ICT在全球温室气体排放中的份额为1.8%-2.8%，但经供应链路径截断调整后，实际份额可能高达2.1%-3.9%。我们探讨了当前估计不同的原因，提供了信息和通信技术排放量可能在没有干预的情况下增加的三个原因，并概述了政策和行业目标所需的变化，以使信息和通信技术的排放与《巴黎协定》保持一致。
In this paper, we critique ICT's current and projected climate impacts. Peer-reviewed studies estimate ICT's current share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at 1.8%–2.8% of global GHG emissions; adjusting for truncation of supply chain pathways, we find that this share could actually be between 2.1% and 3.9%. For ICT's future emissions, we explore assumptions underlying analysts' projections to understand the reasons for their variability. All analysts agree that ICT emissions will not reduce without major concerted efforts involving broad political and industrial action. We provide three reasons to believe ICT emissions are going to increase barring intervention and find that not all carbon pledges in the ICT sector are ambitious enough to meet climate targets. We explore the underdevelopment of policy mechanisms for enforcing sector-wide compliance, and contend that, without a global carbon constraint, a new regulatory framework is required to keep the ICT sector's footprint aligned with the Paris Agreement. To avoid catastrophic consequences from climate change, all sectors of the global economy, including Information Communication Technology (ICT), must keep their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with the Paris Agreement. We examine peer-reviewed estimates of ICT's GHG emissions, which put ICT's share of global GHG emissions at 1.8%–2.8%. We find pronounced differences and much debate concerning the underlying assumptions behind the peer-reviewed studies, which could suggest that global emissions from ICT are as high as 2.1%–3.9%. All study analysts agree that ICT emissions will not reduce without major concerted political and industrial efforts, and we provide three reasons for anticipating that ICT emissions are actually going to increase without intervention. Our analysis suggests not all ICT carbon pledges are ambitious enough to meet climate targets, and that policy mechanisms for enforcing sector-wide climate target compliance are lacking. Without a global carbon constraint, sector-wide regulations are required to keep ICT's carbon footprint aligned with the Paris Agreement. With a global carbon constraint, ICT would be a greater enabler of productivity and utility, creating opportunity for the sector to be financially successful as a critical part of a global net zero society. We examine peer-reviewed estimates of ICT's GHG emissions, which put ICT's share of global GHG emissions at 1.8%–2.8%, yet find the actual share could be as high as 2.1%–3.9% when adjusting for truncation of supply chain pathways. We explore the reasons why current estimates vary, provide three reasons why ICT's emissions will likely increase without intervention, and outline the changes required to policy and industry targets to keep ICT's emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.
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