Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control.
Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-21809-w
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发表时间：
2021-03-12
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Lepri B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cencetti G;Santin G;Longa A;Pigani E;Barrat A;Cattuto C;Lehmann S;Salathé M;Lepri B
数字接触者追踪是控制传染病爆发的相关工具，包括新冠肺炎疫情。早期评估数字接触者追踪的工作忽略了影响传染动力学的真实世界接触模式的重要特征和异质性。我们用一个由经验高分辨率接触者数据提供信息的建模框架来填补这一空白，以分析数字接触者追踪在新冠肺炎大流行中的影响。我们调查了联系人跟踪应用程序，加上对已识别联系人的隔离，可以在多大程度上缓解真实环境中的传播。我们发现，限制性政策在遏制疫情方面更有效，但代价是不必要的大规模隔离。通过效率和成本对策略进行评估，得出优化的解决方案，该解决方案仅将接触时间超过15-20分钟且距离小于2-3米视为有风险。我们的结果表明，当满足以下条件时，隔离和跟踪可以帮助控制重新出现的疫情：(I)通过口罩和物理距离减少繁殖数量；(Ii)低延迟隔离受感染的个体；(Iii)高度遵守。最后，我们观察到涉及二阶联系人的隐私保护较少的跟踪是无效的。我们的结果可能会为目前在全球几个国家实施的数字接触者追踪工作提供参考。数字接触者追踪越来越被认为是控制传染病爆发，特别是新冠肺炎疫情的工具之一。在这里，作者提出了一个基于经验高分辨率联系人数据的建模框架，以分析数字联系人追踪应用程序的影响。
Digital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide. Digital contact tracing is increasingly considered as one of the tools to control infectious disease outbreaks, in particular the COVID-19 epidemic. Here, the authors present a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing apps.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Guzzetta G;Riccardo F;Marziano V;Poletti P;Trentini F;Bella A;Andrianou X;Del Manso M;Fabiani M;Bellino S;Boros S;Urdiales AM;Vescio MF;Piccioli A;COVID-19 Working Group,2;Brusaferro S;Rezza G;Pezzotti P;Ajelli M;Merler S
通讯作者：
Merler S
影响因子：
19
作者：
Ganyani, Tapiwa;Kremer, Cecile;Hens, Niel
通讯作者：
Hens, Niel
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Cattuto C;Van den Broeck W;Barrat A;Colizza V;Pinton JF;Vespignani A
通讯作者：
Vespignani A
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0307506101
发表时间：
2004-04-20
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Fraser, C;Riley, S;Ferguson, NM
通讯作者：
Ferguson, NM