Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties
Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties
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复杂金融市场下资本流入控制不力：九十年代的巴西
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Garcia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho;M. Garcia
我们分析了巴西在20世纪90年代的经验，以评估控制资本流入的有效性，限制金融流入，并改变其组成的长期流动。计量经济学研究表明，对资本流入的控制只能在两个月至六个月的短期内有效阻止资金流入。解释管制无效的假设是，金融机构进行了几项旨在避免资本管制的业务。为了验证这一假设，我们对市场参与者进行了采访。我们收集了几个金融策略的例子，以避免资本管制和投资于巴西固定收益市场。主要结论是，对资本流入的控制虽然可能是可取的，但在复杂的金融市场中效果非常有限。
We analyze the Brazilian experience in the 1990s to assess the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows in restricting financial inflows and changing their composition towards long term flows. Econometric exercises (VARs) showed that controls on capital inflows were effective in deterring financial inflows for only a brief period, from two to six months. The hypothesis to explain the ineffectiveness of the controls is that financial institutions performed several operations aimed at avoiding capital controls. To check this hypothesis, we conducted interviews with market players. We collected several examples of the financial strategies engineered to avoid the capital controls and invest in the Brazilian fixed income market. The main conclusion is that controls on capital inflows, while they may be desirable, are of very limited effectiveness under sophisticated financial markets.