Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination.
Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination.
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiy137
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发表时间：
2018-07-02
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Metcalf CJE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Winter AK;Martinez ME;Cutts FT;Moss WJ;Ferrari MJ;McKee A;Lessler J;Hayford K;Wallinga J;Metcalf CJE
我们使用模拟来强调，如果克服了进行、分析和解释这些问题的挑战，如何（考虑到动态背景）高质量的麻疹和风疹血清学调查可以用于为关键的控制和消除问题提供信息。全球范围内正在加强麻疹和风疹的控制工作。随着消除的临近，识别并接触剩余的易感人群变得越来越重要。麻疹和风疹的血清学调查可以直接测量敏感性，但其使用仍然很少。在这项研究中，我们利用模拟概述了与年龄特异性免疫动态背景相关的解释中的关键微妙之处，强调了根据疾病监测和疫苗接种覆盖率数据预测的免疫模式可能会产生误导。如果克服了进行、分析和解释的挑战，高质量的代表性血清调查可以提供更准确的免疫评估。我们提出了可以通过改进血清学工具来解决的核心疾病控制和消除问题，讨论挑战并提出提高该工具的可行性和可持续性的方法。考虑到动态背景，血清调查可以在实现和维持消除的努力中发挥关键作用。
We use simulations to highlight how (accounting for the dynamical context) high-quality measles and rubella serological surveys can be used to inform key control and elimination questions if the challenges of conducting, analyzing, and interpreting them are overcome. Control efforts for measles and rubella are intensifying globally. It becomes increasingly important to identify and reach remaining susceptible populations as elimination is approached. Serological surveys for measles and rubella can potentially measure susceptibility directly, but their use remains rare. In this study, using simulations, we outline key subtleties in interpretation associated with the dynamic context of age-specific immunity, highlighting how the patterns of immunity predicted from disease surveillance and vaccination coverage data may be misleading. High-quality representative serosurveys could provide a more accurate assessment of immunity if challenges of conducting, analyzing, and interpreting them are overcome. We frame the core disease control and elimination questions that could be addressed by improved serological tools, discussing challenges and suggesting approaches to increase the feasibility and sustainability of the tool. Accounting for the dynamical context, serosurveys could play a key role in efforts to achieve and sustain elimination.
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DOI：
10.1071/nb03027
发表时间：
2003-04-01
期刊：
New South Wales public health bulletin
影响因子：
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作者：
Gidding, Heather
通讯作者：
Gidding, Heather
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
de Roos, AM;Leonardsson, K;Mittelbach, GG
通讯作者：
Mittelbach, GG
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cutts FT;Izurieta HS;Rhoda DA
通讯作者：
Rhoda DA
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Huzly, Daniela;Hanselmann, Ingeborg;Panning, Marcus
通讯作者：
Panning, Marcus
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6642a6
发表时间：
2017-10-27
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Dabbagh A;Patel MK;Dumolard L;Gacic-Dobo M;Mulders MN;Okwo-Bele JM;Kretsinger K;Papania MJ;Rota PA;Goodson JL
通讯作者：
Goodson JL