ASSESSING THE VARIABILITY OF STOCHASTIC EPIDEMICS
ASSESSING THE VARIABILITY OF STOCHASTIC EPIDEMICS
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/0025-5564(91)90005-4
复制
发表时间：
1991-12-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
ISHAM, V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ISHAM, V
在预测个人对一种流行病的认识过程时，重要的是要知道这种认识相对于其平均值的变异程度。在本文中，在一般的随机流行病的背景下，获得近似估计的这种变异性的一些方法进行了研究，一个是基于渐近高斯扩散过程的多元正态近似，另一个使用近似线性随机过程。这些方法的扩展到更详细的模型来描述艾滋病毒感染和艾滋病的传播动力学进行了讨论。
In predicting the course of individual realizations of an epidemic it is important to know the magnitude of the variability of such realizations about their mean. In this paper and in the context of the general stochastic epidemic, some methods of obtaining approximate estimates of this variability are investigated; one is a multivariate normal approximation based on an asymptotic Gaussian diffusion process, and another uses an approximating linear stochastic process. The extension of these methods to the more detailed models used to describe the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS is discussed.