Gambling With the Climate: How Risky of a Bet Are Natural Climate Solutions?
Gambling With the Climate: How Risky of a Bet Are Natural Climate Solutions?
复制标题
与气候赌博：自然气候解决方案的风险有多大？
DOI：
10.1029/2021av000490
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
W. Anderegg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Anderegg
作为基于自然的气候解决方案（NCS），以减轻人为造成的气候变化。NCS经常带来一系列潜在的共同利益，包括生物多样性和保护，因此成为应对气候变化的有吸引力的潜在工具（Griscom等人，2017年）。至关重要的是，要发挥减缓气候变化的作用，NCS的工作必须满足几个基本标准，包括：（a）提供额外的碳储存量，超出原本可能发生的碳储存量;（B）核算因国家控制系统活动而转移到其他地方的排放量（c）通过综合生态系统变化的主要生物物理和生物地球化学影响，对气候产生净冷却效应，最后（d）在长时间（通常认为是100年或更长）内实现一定水平的碳储存"持久性"（图1）（Anderegg等人，2020;安德森等人，2011; Hurteau等人，2013; Ruseva等人，2017年）。如果气候变化导致森林碳储存损失，这将极大地削弱国家碳战略在气候目标和政策中的作用和潜力（Baldocchi & Penuelas，2019年; Anderegg等人，2020年）。因此，评估21世纪森林碳储存持久性的尖端科学对从政府到公司到非政府组织的广泛利益攸关方至关重要。
as nature-based climate solutions (NCS) to mitigate human-caused climate change. NCS frequently bring an array of potential co-benefits, including to biodiversity and conservation, and thus make an attractive potential tool to tackle climate change (Griscom et al., 2017). Crucially, to function as climate mitigation, NCS efforts must meet several fundamental criteria including: (a) providing additional carbon storage beyond what would have occurred otherwise, (b) accounting for emissions that shift elsewhere due to NCS activities (termed “leakage”), (c) having a net cooling effect on the climate by integrating the central biophysical and biogeochemical impacts of ecosystem changes, and finally (d) achieving a level of carbon storage “permanence” over long periods of time (typically considered to be 100 years or longer) (Figure 1) (Anderegg et al., 2020; Anderson et al., 2011; Hurteau et al., 2013; Ruseva et al., 2017). If climate change drives losses of carbon storage in forests, that would dramatically undermine the role and potential of NCS in climate goals and policy (Baldocchi & Penuelas, 2019; Anderegg et al., 2020). Thus, cutting-edge science to evaluate the permanence of forest carbon storage in the 21 century is critically important to a wide array of stakeholders from governments to corporations to non-governmental organizations.