A growing degree-days based time-series analysis for prediction of Schistosoma japonicum transmission in Jiangsu province, China
A growing degree-days based time-series analysis for prediction of Schistosoma japonicum transmission in Jiangsu province, China
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.549
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发表时间：
2006-09-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Utzinger, Jurg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang, Guo-Jing;Gemperli, Armin;Utzinger, Jurg
有人认为，全球变暖可能会改变病媒传播疾病的频率和传播动态。为了验证这一说法的血吸虫病，我们进行了时间序列分析，从1972年至2002年的70个县的江苏省，中国东部，其中日本血吸虫是部分流行。我们使用建模方法来估计年生长度日（AGDD），采用15.3摄氏度的较低温度阈值。我们的最终模型包括时间和空间分量，前者由时间上的二阶多项式加上季节性分量组成，而空间趋势由坐标的二阶多项式加上薄板平滑样条形成。我们发现，在过去的30年里，所有观测站的温度都在上升。有明显的时间趋势与季节性和周期性的12个月，6个月和3个月，而只有边际空间变化观察。2006年和2003年预测的AGDD在整个江苏省都是增长的，两个时间点之间的AGDD差异呈现出从北到南的趋势。我们的数据表明，温度的变化将改变血吸虫病传播的范围和水平，这与控制S。未来更温暖的中国。
It has been suggested that global warming may alter the frequency and transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. To test this claim for schistosomiasis, we conducted a time-series analysis from 1972-2002 for 39 of the 70 counties of Jiangsu province, eastern China, where Schistosoma japonicum is partially endemic. We used a modeling approach to estimate the annual growing degree-days (AGDD), employing a lower temperature threshold of 15.3 degrees C. Our final model included both temporal and spatial components, the former consisting of second order polynomials in time plus a seasonality component, whereas the spatial trend was formed by second order polynomials of the coordinates plus the thin-plate smoothing splines. We found that temperature increased over the past 30 years in all observing stations. There were distinct temporal trends with seasonality and periodicities of 12, 6, and 3 months, whereas only marginal spatial variation was observed. The predicted AGDDs for 2006 and 2003 showed increases for the entire Jiangsu province, with the AGDDs difference between these two time points exhibiting an increase from north to South. Our data suggest that changes in temperature will alter the extent and level of schistosomiasis transmission, which is relevant for the control of S. japonicum in a future warmer China.