Towards a methodology for testing models as hypotheses in the inexact sciences.
Towards a methodology for testing models as hypotheses in the inexact sciences.
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寻找一种在不精确科学中测试模型作为假设的方法。
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2018.0862
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Beven K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beven K
本文回顾了将水文学作为一个面临重大认识不确定性的不精确科学的例子所涉及的问题。它提出了一种新的方法，用于开发测试水文模型的可接受性限制，作为关于集水区水文系统如何运作的假设。该方法仅基于对现有观测资料的分析和对连续降雨-径流事件的事件质量平衡的考虑。结果表明，在输入数据中存在许多受认知不确定性影响的事件，使得质量平衡不能得到满足。提出的方法允许在任何模型运行之前以实用的方式考虑这些认知不确定性。这种方法可能适用于环境科学的其他领域，在这些领域中，类似的基本原则是模型的基础，但用于模型评价的观察结果可能无法满足这些领域。
This paper reviews the issues involved in treating hydrology as an example of an inexact science faced with significant epistemic uncertainties. It proposes a novel method for developing limits of acceptability for testing hydrological models as hypotheses about how a catchment hydrological system might function. The approach is based only on an analysis of the available observations and the consideration of event mass balance for successive rainfall-runoff events. It is shown that there are many events that are subject to epistemic uncertainties in the input data so that mass balance is not satisfied. The proposed approach allows taking these epistemic uncertainties into account in a pragmatic way before any model runs are made. It is an approach that might be applicable in other areas of environmental science where similar basic principles are fundamental to models, but which might not be satisfied by the observations that are used for model evaluation.