The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022
The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022
复制标题
全球和本地供应链中断的总体影响：2020 年至 2022 年
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103788
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Ruhl, Kim J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alessandria, George;Khan, Shafaat Yar;Khederlarian, Armen;Mix, Carter;Ruhl, Kim J.
我们在异质企业一般均衡模型中研究了大流行后时期供应链中断的总体影响，该模型具有投入产出联系和丰富的供应链摩擦：不确定的运输延误、固定订单成本和存储成本。企业最好持有取决于供应来源（国内或进口）的库存。运输时间的增加会导致收缩，提高价格并增加缺货，特别是对于延迟投入密集的商品。当库存已经处于较低水平时，这些影响会更大。我们将该模型与 2020 年至 2022 年的美国和全球经济相匹配，并估计了供应中断的巨大总体影响。我们的模型预测，减少延迟带来的产出增长将小于刺激效应减弱带来的产出收缩。
We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. We fit the model to the U.S. and global economies from 2020 to 2022 and estimate large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.