Modeling the effects of drought in urban economies using regional input-output analysis.
Modeling the effects of drought in urban economies using regional input-output analysis.
复制标题
使用区域投入产出分析模拟干旱对城市经济的影响。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Santos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Pagsuyoin;J. Santos
目的：本研究探讨干旱的严重程度和持续时间的经济影响，相互依存的产品离子部门在城市集水区。方法学：我们开发了一个动态的水投入产出模型扩展，以分析干旱脆弱性和恢复力的经济部门在城市地区。该模型利用北美工业分类系统（NAICS），其中包括65个经济部门在我们的区域分析。该模型被应用到美国（美国）国家首都地区，一个主要的城市地区，被认为是美国的主要经济驱动力之一的案例研究。结果如下：模拟结果确定了关键的经济部门，经验最高的不操作性和经济损失的结果，在干旱事件期间实施的减水计划。在所研究的两种情景（干旱预警和干旱紧急情况）中，各部门对水资源减少的幅度和持续时间表现出不成比例的复原力和敏感性。在每一种情况下，关键部门的经济损失和无法运作的排名因部门生产产出的数量和价值不同而不同。结论：观察到的数据趋势为决策者制定干旱准备政策、水资源保护计划和旨在在紧急情况下减少水消耗的短期反应提供了有价值的见解。本研究所建立的动态水资源再分配投入产出模型可应用于其他干旱易发地区，并可用于分析干旱的经济后果、生态系统阈值和水资源再分配
Aim: This research examines the economic impacts of drought severity and duration to interdependent product ion sectors in an urban catchment. Methodology: We developed a dynamic water input - output model extension to analyze the drought vulnerability and resilience of economic sectors in an urban region. The model utilizes the North American Industry Classificat ion System (NAICS), which encompasses 65 economic sectors in our regional analysis. The model is applied to a case study of the United States (US) National Capital Region, a predominantly urban region that is considered one of the major economic drivers of the US. Results: Simulation results identify the critical economic sectors that experience the highest inoperability and economic losses as a result of water reduction schemes implemented during drought events. In the two scenarios studied (drought warnin g and drought emergency), sectors exhibit disproportionate levels of resilience and sensitivity to the magnitude and duration of water reduction. In each case, the economic loss and inoperability rankings of critical sectors differ due to differences in th e quantity and value of the sectors’ production outputs. Conclusion: Observed data trends provide valuable insights for decision makers in formulating drought preparedness policies, water conservation programs , and short - term responses aimed to reduce wate r consumption in cases of emergency. The dynamic water reallocation I - O model developed in this study can be applied to other drought - prone regions and be used to generate insights on the economic consequences of drought, ecosystem thresholds, and water re allocation