China's Electric Vehicle Deployment: Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts
China's Electric Vehicle Deployment: Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts
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中国电动汽车的部署：能源和温室气体排放的影响
DOI：
10.3390/en11123353
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Hao, Han
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Feiqi;Zhao, Fuquan;Hao, Han
中国汽车市场的爆炸式增长引发了能源安全、气候变化、空气污染等一系列问题，电动汽车的部署被认为是解决这些问题的有效方案。因此，中国的国家和地方政府都推出了一些政策和激励措施，以加快电动汽车和电动汽车产业的发展。从车队的角度来看，电动汽车能否在短期内有效地解决这些问题？基于中国最新的电动汽车部署方案，分析了中国道路运输行业在三种不同情景下的能耗和温室气体排放。结果表明，根据目前的规划，整个船队的能源消耗和温室气体排放将在2025年和2027年达到峰值，达到约403百万吨油当量和1763百万吨二氧化碳当量的水平。(百万吨二氧化碳当量)。电动汽车的引入将在长期内显著减少对化石燃料的依赖，增加拥有量，而在短期内，燃油经济性监管仍将发挥更重要的作用。政策制定者应该继续关注这一点。与此同时，商用车，特别是重型卡车在整个车队的能源消耗和温室气体排放中所占的比例将越来越大。因此，在某种程度上，重点应该从乘用车转向商用车。可以实施更多措施。
The explosion of the vehicle market in China has caused a series of problems, like energy security, climate change, air pollution, etc. The deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) is considered an effective solution to address these problems. Thus, both the state and local governments in China have launched some policies and incentives to accelerate the development of EVs and the EV industry. Do EVs can effectively solve these problems in short term, viewed from the fleet point? Based on China's most up-to-date deployment plan for EVs, this paper analyzes the energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by China's road transport sector in three different scenarios. The results indicate that, based on current planning, the energy consumption and GHG emissions of the whole fleet will peak in 2025 and 2027, at the level of around 403 mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) and 1763 mt CO2 eq. (million tons of CO2 equivalent), respectively. The introduction of EVs will significantly reduce the reliance on fossil fuel in the long term, with increasing ownership, while, in the short term, the fuel economy regulation will still play a more important role. Policy makers should continually pay attention to this. Meanwhile, commercial vehicles, especially heavy-duty trucks will account for a bigger and bigger proportion in the energy consumption and GHG emissions of the whole fleet. Thus, to some extent the focus should shift from passenger vehicles to commercial vehicles. More measures could be implemented.