How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?
How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?
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DOI：
10.1080/01441640309904
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Buhl, SL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Flyvbjerg, B;Holm, MKS;Buhl, SL
尽管在基础设施建设上投入了数千亿美元--从公路、铁路和机场到能源开采和电力网络再到互联网--但令人惊讶的是，关于这些投资在实际成本、收益和风险方面的表现，几乎没有可靠的知识。本文介绍了交通基础设施项目成本性能的第一次统计学上的重要研究结果。所用的样本是同类样本中最大的，包括20个国家的258个项目，价值约900亿美元（1995年不变价格）。该文件以压倒性的统计意义表明，在成本方面，运输基础设施项目没有履行承诺。对不同项目类型、不同地理区域和不同历史时期的结论进行了检验。费用大幅上涨是正常现象，而不是例外。对于铁路，平均成本上升为45%（SD = 38），对于固定连接（隧道和桥梁），平均成本上升为34%（62），对于公路，平均成本上升为20%（30）。成本上升似乎是一个全球性的现象，存在于五大洲的20个国家。在过去70年中，费用估计数没有改善，费用上涨也没有减少。交通运输基础设施发展决策中使用的成本估算具有高度、系统性和严重的误导性。大的成本上升加上大的标准差会转化为巨大的财务风险。然而，在决策过程中，这些风险通常被忽视或低估，从而损害了社会和经济福利。
Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on infrastructure development - from roads, rail and airports to energy extraction and power networks to the Internet - surprisingly little reliable knowledge exists about the performance of these investments in terms of actual costs, benefits and risks. This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost performance in transport infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 258 projects in 20 nations worth approximately US$90 billion (constant 1995 prices). The paper shows with overwhelming statistical significance that in terms of costs transport infrastructure projects do not perform as promised. The conclusion is tested for different project types, different geographical regions and different historical periods. Substantial cost escalation is the rule rather than the exception. For rail, average cost escalation is 45% (SD = 38), for fixed links (tunnels and bridges) it is 34% (62) and for roads 20% (30). Cost escalation appears a global phenomenon, existing across 20 nations on five continents. Cost estimates have not improved and cost escalation not decreased over the past 70 years. Cost estimates used in decision-making for transport infrastructure development are highly, systematically and significantly misleading. Large cost escalations combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial risks. However, such risks are typically ignored or underplayed in decision-making, to the detriment of social and economic welfare.