Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth?: Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850–1860
Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth?: Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850–1860
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DOI：
10.3386/w14640
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发表时间：
2010-05
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
J. Atack;Fred H. Bateman;M. Haines;R. Margo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Atack;Fred H. Bateman;M. Haines;R. Margo
利用新开发的地理信息系统交通数据库，我们研究了获得铁路交通的影响，在1850年和1860年之间的人口密度和城市化率的变化，在美国中西部。差异中的差异和工具变量分析的278个县的平衡面板显示，只有一个小的积极影响，铁路接入的人口密度，但对城市化的一个很大的积极影响，衡量的比例，生活在合并地区的2 500或以上。我们的估计意味着，在南北战争后期，中西部城市化增长的一半或更多可能归因于铁路网络的扩展。
Using a newly developed geographic information system transportation database, we study the impact of gaining access to rail transportation on changes in population density and the rate of urbanization between 1850 and 1860 in the American Midwest. Differences-in-differences and instrumental variable analysis of a balanced panel of 278 counties reveals only a small positive effect of rail access on population density but a large positive impact on urbanization as measured by the fraction of people living in incorporated areas of 2,500 or more. Our estimates imply that one-half or more of the growth in urbanization in the Midwest in the late antebellum period may be attributable to the spread of the rail network.