Influence of Madden‐Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia rainfall extremes: Observations and predictability
Influence of Madden‐Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia rainfall extremes: Observations and predictability
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl060241
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发表时间：
2014-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
P. Xavier;R. Rahmat;W. Cheong;E. Wallace
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Xavier;R. Rahmat;W. Cheong;E. Wallace
利用TRMM卫星降水和雨量计资料研究了马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）对东南亚降水分布的影响。结果表明，对流活跃（抑制）阶段的MJO可以增加（减少）的概率约30-50%（20-25%）的极端降水事件在陆地地区在11月至3月的季节。MJO对局地极端降水的影响也表现在降水强度和持续时间两个方面。英国气象局全球季节性预报系统季节性预报系统的重现MJO的影响，以及降雨分布，尽管模型的偏见在土地上。预测第90百分位极端降雨的技能分数显示出显着的对流阶段的技能。这项研究表明，在中期极端降雨概率预报的可行性。
The influence of Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the rainfall distribution of Southeast Asia is studied using TRMM satellite‐derived rainfall and rain gauge data. It is shown that convectively active (suppressed) phases of MJO can increase (decrease) the probability of extreme rain events over the land regions by about 30–50% (20–25%) during November–March season. The influence of MJO on localized rainfall extremes are also observed both in rainfall intensity and duration. The Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system seasonal forecasting system is shown to reproduce the MJO influence on rainfall distribution well despite the model biases over land. Skills scores for forecasting 90th percentile extreme rainfall shows significant skills for convective phases. This study demonstrates the feasibility of deriving probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall at medium range.